Perhaps the most confusing game of the week from a gambling perspective will be played on Sunday night in Sin City. The Las Vegas Raiders come in as 6.5 point underdogs, which seems a bit low but considering they beat the Kansas City Chiefs once, it’s fair.
Kansas City -6.5/-270 @ Las Vegas Raiders +6.5/+220- Over/Under-56.5
The Raiders have covered the spread in four of their last five games, so it might be smart to consider taking the points. However, Kansas City has covered the spread in 15 of their last 18 games, a truly remarkable rate. My gut feeling tells me the Raiders don’t cover. If you think they will, it’s smarter to just take the money line instead, it is a better value bet.
The 56.5 Over/Under this week is a bit high. Keep in mind the two teams playing are top ten offenses. Don’t move too fast though, I don’t expect this game to be as high scoring as the experts think. The Raiders and Chiefs both know they can lose in a shootout versus the other team. For that reason, they may look to win this one on the ground by controlling the clock.
Bet 1- Raiders Moneyline- It’s simple, this one doesn’t favor the Silver and Black. If you have confidence in them winning, take the money line at +220. I’d take this bet all the way down to +180 personally.
Bet 2- Under 56.5- This should be a high-scoring game. However, this number is way too high to feel comfortable, especially the way the Raiders have been running the ball and milking the clock in past weeks. I’m expecting a 27-21 type game this week.
Devontae Booker First Touchdown Scored +2200-+2900- This is simply a value bet, Booker is going to get some carries throughout the ball game similar to last week, and a little side bet here to potentially hit the jackpot seems worth it. He scored two touchdowns late last game, and the Raiders may look to get him involved early on instead.
Josh Jacobs Over 65.5 Yards Rushing– This is my lock of the week, and often I’m wrong on those. However, Jacobs is seemingly rolling at the moment and has had two 100+ yard efforts in his last three games. The Raiders should ride the young back early and hit this bet relatively early. He’s going to lose some carries to Booker and that’s the reason for the low total, but I’m confident this one will hit.
Tyreke Hill Over 69.5 Yards Receiving- The Raiders did an okay job versus wide receivers last week due to their good pass-rush. However, let’s be honest here, the Broncos aren’t good. The flipside of that coin is that Keenan Allen had his way the week before, and with wide receiver Tyreek Hill, it just takes one deep ball to hit prop bets. This number is extremely low in my opinion and seems like a pretty safe prop bet to make on most platforms.
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*Top Photo: Associated Press/Reed Hoffmann