Las Vegas Raiders

Gamble Ramble: Betting the Raiders in Week 4 Against the Broncos

Another week, another chance to make some money by betting on your Las Vegas Raiders. Last week’s picks ultimately left us in the red, thanks in large part to Darren Waller being allergic to touchdowns in Tennessee. At 0-3 heading into this Week 4 clash with Denver, we could all use something to take our minds off of the gravity of this situation. All lines are via DraftKings as of Saturday morning. Raider Nation, let’s ride.

Smartest Bet: Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 (-110)

Betting on the result of this game feels so wrong at this point. Counting on the Raiders to win feels like counting on that floating box on your TV to slide perfectly into the corner. Nevertheless, there is reason to feel good about this pick.

The line being where it’s at tells you a lot about how the oddsmakers feel about this game. The Raiders are 0-3, taking on a 2-1 team, yet they are favored. That simply does not happen very often. Denver’s record is better than what their play has earned, squeaking out wins against other teams who are not playing well. The Broncos are 31st in the league in points but have been saved by being second in points against. The Raiders, on the other hand, do not look like a winless team. So far, the Raiders are 11th in points for and tied for eighth in points against. A lot has had to go wrong to keep the Raiders from getting a win so far.

The bottom line is that Denver is over-performing, and Las Vegas is under-performing. Statistically, both teams are due for a correction. In each case, that correction would favor the Raiders. I like the spread here up to three points. Anything above that? Go with the money line.

Best Risky Bet: Bradley Chubb OVER 0.75 Sacks (+230)

These odds just seem too good to be true. This almost fell under “Safest Bet.” Chubb is averaging a sack per game so far this season. The Raiders have allowed almost three sacks per game this year. With Josh McDaniels still playing a shell game with the offensive line, shuffling around five to eight different guys each week, combined with a stout Denver defense, I would expect the Broncos to get to Carr at least three times in this tilt. The idea that Chubb, the team’s best pass rusher, would get one of those sacks, seems pretty likely.

Safest Bet: Derek Carr OVER 4.5 Yards Rushing (-120)

At this point, betting on Carr’s running is starting to look pretty safe. It helps that he only needs five yards for the OVER to hit. Carr is averaging about 8.7 yards per game on the ground this season. If you take out the season opener in which he did not run at all, that number jumps to 13. Carr usually only takes off once or twice a game. When he does, he is typically good for about five to ten yards. On the other side of things, Denver has given up about 8.3 yards rushing per game to quarterbacks this season. Through three games the Broncos have faced four quarterbacks: Geno Smith, Davis Mills, Jeff Driskel, and Jimmy Garoppolo. While Carr is not the best runner, neither are any of those guys. This should be a gimme.

Raiders/Broncos: Game Within the Game – Adams vs. Surtain II

*Top Photo: Scott Winters/Icon Sports Wire via Getty Images

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