Despite having a strong chance to win every game thus far, Josh McDaniels’ Las Vegas Raiders find themselves at 1-4. While the schedule certainly eases after the bye week, there is little margin for error left if Raiders fans are to be in attendance for playoff football.
Today, we will take a bit of a different look at the Raiders’ offensive unit. I’ve been tracking the offense with a few different caveats to regular statistics. Net yardage of plays includes penalty yards, so drawing a pass interference is treated the same as receiving yards. I’ve assigned blame to each turnover and sack, along with creating my own subjective measure of successful play. Essentially, I’ve deemed whether or not each play was successful for the Raiders in the context of the game.
Some examples of this distinction being different on similar plays: a 7-yard pass on 3rd & 12 that gets the team in Daniel Carlson’s range would be a success, while the same play when losing by 14 or on the Raiders side of the field would not be a success. Or a 2nd & 8 where a run of seven would normally be a success, but if the Raiders were down by 10 with 2 minutes to go, this would not be a success because it kept the clock running when time is of the essence. You get it.
We can look at everything, every play type, down, distance, etc.
Additionally, I have it all in a PowerBI file which I can easily customize to get a more exact look at the game. This can be customized for play type, play direction, down and distance, field position, time of game, score of the game, and play target. Which is what we will be doing more of below. If there is anything not mentioned below that is a combination of the fields I have listed, please comment or reply on Twitter and in the next installment I’ll be sure to include it.
2022 Las Vegas Raiders Season Totals
| Opponent | Successful Play % |
| @ Chargers | 49% |
| vs. Cardinals | 48% |
| @ Titans | 47% |
| vs. Broncos | 60% |
| @ Chiefs | 48% |
| Season To Date | 50% |
*Please note that this is only for run or pass plays. This does not include offensive pre-snap penalties, defensive pre-snap penalties, or kneel downs.
It is clear to see that the Raider offense turned in its best performance against the Broncos. Judging by the scores of the games and considering the Raider defense, I would guess the offense needs about a 52% success rate to consistently win games. Breaking the season out by quarter doesn’t reveal much. The 54% success rate in the first quarter is the highest. 47% in the third quarter is the lowest. The success rate in OT is only 20%, but that includes only five plays.
Pass or Run for The Raiders?
| Play Type | Successful Play % | Average Net Yards |
| Pass | 48% | 6.4 |
| Run | 54% | 4.3 |
*66% of play calls have been passes. Please note that a pass play where Carr scrambles is recorded as a pass play.
The Raiders have a high successful play percentage when running but average more when throwing it. The reasoning isn’t too hard to comprehend. More pass plays are called in difficult situations. For example, on 3rd and 8+, the Raiders have only thrown it. That’s a harder situation to get a successful play in, even with yardage. Additionally, long passes have been more common for the Raiders than long rushes. The two bombs to Davante Adams in Kansas City, for example, brought the average up.
Trailing, Tied, or Leading
| Score | Successful Play % |
| Trailing | 47% |
| Tied | 53% |
| Leading | 48% |
The sample size is probably too small to get much into this. Most plays don’t happen in a tie game. However, I would say it is still concerning that the offense appears to struggle to play with a lead (the Cardinals game, for instance) and struggles in game-winning drives (Chargers, Cardinals, and Chiefs all had failed GW drives).
| Play Target (10+ Play Targets) | Average Net Yardage |
| Mack Hollins | 9.35 |
| Davante Adams | 7.93 |
| Darren Waller | 7.30 |
| Derek Carr | 6.30 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5.64 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5.47 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 5.43 |
This includes run plays and passes. Josh Jacobs is hurt here by offensive holding penalties on run plays. Hollins, Adams, and Waller are boosted by drawing OPI. Derek Carr is actually averaging 7.13 on eight scrambles and 75% of them have been successful plays. He should do that more, which everyone has been saying forever. Targets to Jacobs in the passing game average 6.79 yards. His inclusion in the pass game this year has been a bright spot in the offense.
Are the Las Vegas Raiders an offensive disaster?
| 3rd Down Distance | Play Type % | Success Rate |
| 12+ | 100% Pass | 38% |
| 8-12 | 100% Pass | 36% |
| 4-7 | 92% Pass | 60% |
| 1-3 | 53% Pass | 40% |
| ALL | 84% Pass | 46% |
The Raiders’ being better on third downs of greater than three yards but yet less successful on those of under three yards is insanity. On top of this, and even more insane, only 13% of pass plays have been successful on 3rd down and 3 or less. In the same situation, the Raiders have been successful on 71% of their runs. This cannot happen with two of the best route runners in football and a quarterback who has consistently been above average in terms of accuracy. A total offensive failure up to this point.
Season Quick Hitters
- 4/5 giveaways, including 3/4 interceptions, occurred on 1st or 2nd down.
- 5 Giveaways this year, blame: Derek Carr (3), Darren Waller (1), Hunter Renfrow (1).
- 34% Successful Play Rate in the Red Zone this season. 20% on third downs, which have all been passes.
- 29% Successful Play Rate in Goal-to-Go situations this year: 17% on runs and 33% on passes.
- 13 sacks this year, blame: Dylan Parham (3), Jermaine Eluemunor (3), Derek Carr (2), Kolton Miller (2), Darren Waller (1), Josh Jacobs (1), Thayer Munford (1).
- 02 on 2-point conversions. Both were on huge moments.
Why the Las Vegas Raiders lost or why they won
- Week 1 (L)
- 3 INTs and none were on 3rd down (all blamed on Carr)
- Week 2 (L)
- Successful Play % in the 3rd Quarter
- 33%
- Successful Play % in the 4th Quarter
- 25%
- Successful Play % in OT
- 20%
- And obviously, the Renfrow fumble.Â
- Successful Play % in the 3rd Quarter
- Week 3 (L)
- 8% Success Rate on 3rd Down (11 passes and 1 Run)
- 0/5 on 3rd and less than 4
- Interception in the RedZone (blamed on Waller)
- Week 4 (W)
- 68% on 2nd Down
- 67% of Runs were Successful
- No TOs
- Week 5 (L)
- 25% Successful Play rate inside KC’s 35-yard line (field goal range)
- Defensive Holding on a Field Goal (7 years since the last one)
The Raiders Still Don’t Have An Answer For Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
*Top Photo: Official Raiders YouTube Channel