We are back again on this short week for a special Thursday edition of Gamble Ramble! We hit on just one of our three picks last week for the Las Vegas Raiders. So, hopefully, we’ll have a better showing this time around. Here are my three picks for the game against the Los Angeles Rams. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Wednesday evening.
Smartest Raiders Bet: Over 43.5 (-110)
I agree with what my colleague Raiderdamus foretold yesterday. The Raiders should win this game, and a score of 30-19 feels about right. Derek Carr gets his two touchdown passes, Josh Jacobs runs for one, and Daniel Carlson hits three field goals. On the other side of the ball, the defense should hold a Rams offense that could possibly be quarterbacked by Baker Mayfield to just under 20 points.
Given the circumstances, it’s tempting to take the Raiders at -6.5. However, the over feels safer. Remember, Thursday night games are typically weird. The short week causes a lot of trends to go out the window. If this contest gets weird, I think the most likely scenario would be a closer, high-scoring game. In that case, I would still like the over.
Safest Raiders Bet: Davante Adams to Score a Touchdown (-150)
Adams is a machine. Honestly, you shouldn’t be able to bet on this. It is free money. To be fair, he does have Jalen Ramsey covering him. Regardless, the guy is too good and too integral to the offense. Also, Adams’ release, combined with Josh McDaniels figuring out how to scheme him open, makes him virtually matchup-proof. This should be a relatively easy pick. Granted, the value is not great, but you could toss it into a parlay and not really have to sweat it out.
Best Risky Bet: Mack Hollins to Score a Touchdown (+235)
Outside of Adams, Hollins is by far the next closest thing the Raiders have to a reliable receiver. Keelan Cole is terrible, Foster Moreau looks checked out, and Ameer Abdullah is a running back who only gets to catch passes because Josh Jacobs is too valuable as a runner to waste his time with that. Adams just went off for two touchdowns last week. It is hard to imagine him doing that twice in five days, especially with Ramsey in coverage. Carr will have to look elsewhere at some point. That will have to be Hollins by default. Laying money on Hollins feels wrong, especially with how mediocre he has looked. However, he has almost no competition for catches outside of Adams. That, combined with some solid value, makes it worth betting on.
*Top Photo: Yahoo Sports/USA Today
