It’s time for another edition of the Gamble Ramble! After going 0-3 last week, we are one for six on the year. Most of the picks so far have been on the Raiders to do positive things, like scoring points and winning games. Is it time to start fading them and betting on their opponents? That day might be getting here soon, but this week’s opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, is probably not the team to start with.
That being said, we will be a bit more cautious with the Vegas offense this week. As usual, the lines come from Draft Kings as of Saturday morning (Sept. 23). Let’s get into the best bets of the week!
Best Value: Raiders K Daniel Carlson Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-105)
Let’s try this pick again. Last week, Carlson did not get an opportunity to kick more than once, mirroring the same outcome as the week before. This trend has to stop eventually. Week 3 seems like the perfect setup, as the contest figures to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, which bodes well for Carlson.
The value isn’t bad on this, either. At (-105), it’s pretty much even odds. If Carlson gets two chances, the Raiders kicker will almost certainly hit the over. That bet would normally be the lock of the week, but there is an even more certain line out there.
Lock of the Week: Under 43 (-112)
The chances of either team breaking 20 this week are slim to none. Neither offense has eclipsed that threshold yet this year. Technically, Pittsburgh did score 26 last week against Cleveland, but one of their touchdowns came from a pick-six by defender Alex Highsmith.
Even when you include all points scored, the Raiders and Steelers average 13.5 and 16.5 points per game, respectively. This game is going to be a race to 19. The winner will come down to who can hit that fourth field goal. We might even see a walk-off kick in overtime.
Long Shot of the Week: There Will be Overtime In Vegas (+1100)
I love this prop. The Raiders and Steelers have played many weird, close games throughout their history. This week’s game should be no different. I imagine a 19-16 final score with the winner hitting a field goal in overtime.
The value of this pick is just incredible, too. This is the type of pick that can erase an entire week of gambling losses. It isn’t that crazy of a result, either. Low-scoring games are the ones that tend to hit overtime since there are a limited number of scoring combinations. There is too much to like about this pick not to throw something at it.
*Top Photo: Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images