Okay, listen up, you degenerate gamblers. It’s time to try betting on Las Vegas Raiders games again.
It has been going horribly so far this year. Last week, we only hit on one pick out of three, and we are now two for nine on the year. In terms of units, we dropped 1.12 last week, and we are now down 4.62 for the season. Ouch.
Still, it’s time to right the ship this week. We are done trying to bet on which Raiders are “due” or for the Raiders to really do much of anything. It is time to start treating this team for what it is and betting accordingly. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Saturday morning. Time for this week’s picks.
Best Value: Jakobi Meyers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
If there is any Raider worth betting on to score, it’s Meyers. He nabbed two touchdown passes in week one against the Broncos but missed the following week due to injury. Meyers did not miss a beat in his Week 3 return. His volume stayed strong, despite not scoring.
Before placing this bet, make sure that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to play. It looks like he should, assuming he passes his final concussion test. That bodes well for Meyers. The Raiders quarterback only seems to have eyes for he and Davante Adams. The pair have scored all five of the Raiders’ touchdowns this year.
More than likely, one of them will score again this week. At +210, Meyers has much better value than Adams (-150). Meyers should score, but don’t expect a barn burner.
Lock of the Week: Under 48.5 (-108)
Let’s go back to the well once again. The under was our only successful pick last week against Pittsburgh. In fact, the underdog has hit in two out of three Raiders games thus far. The only over that hit was week two in Buffalo by just half a point.
This week, the line is at 48.5. Raiders games have yet to eclipse that total this year. A big reason for that is the fact that Las Vegas can’t score. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story. The defense is quietly having a solid year and is middle of the pack in scoring.
The under faces a tougher test this week with the Chargers, who are one of the best in the league in scoring offense, and one of the worst in scoring defense. Regardless, I like the under to hold out. The Raiders have made mediocre defenses look competent all season. Assuming they fail to break 20 this week once more, the defense should be able to keep Los Angeles under 30. Yes, that means the Raiders will likely drop their third straight game, but it is time to start profiting off that.
Long-Shot of the Week: Chargers Defense/Special Teams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+550)
Sorry folks, but this is the reality we live in. The value here is just too good to pass up. Now, the Raiders have yet to give up a defensive touchdown this year, but there is reason to believe that it is only a matter of time.
Garoppolo is averaging two picks a game this year, so it is safe to say he will throw at least one more this week. At some point one is going to get taken back to the house. Also, he is likely to give up a sack or two this week. The Chargers have two great defensive ends in [sigh] Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. The pair have combined for 39 career forced fumbles, so there is also some scoop-and-score potential.
A lot of this is predicated upon Garoppolo playing, but what if he doesn’t? Much to the chagrin of Raider Nation, it seems like Brian Hoyer will be the guy. That would only increase the potential for a disastrous play. Take this play. even if it is only to ease the pain if/when it happens.
*Top Photo: Getty Images