We are back talking about fantasy football once again. Today, we are discussing something that we never thought would be on the table: Is it time to send Las Vegas Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson, the two-time defending fantasy kicking champion, to the waiver wire?
Let’s take a look at just how rough Carlson’s start has been and see if there is any reason to hold out hope for a turn around.
Scoring Struggles For Daniel Carlson
Carlson’s fantasy scoring has fallen off a cliff this season. After averaging 9.4 points per week last year, Las Vegas’ kicker has mustered just 4.4 per game, which ranks 31st in the NFL. It really can’t get much worse than that.
A lot of it is out of his control. The Raiders have yet to score more than 18 points in a game. If that weren’t bad enough, most of their measly points are coming from touchdowns. Prior to Monday night’s game against Green Bay, the Raiders had not even attempted more than one field goal in any game this year. It doesn’t matter how accurate Carlson is, or how strong of a leg he has, if he is not getting any opportunities. Week 5 seemed to buck that trend, but then we ran into another issue.
Carlson attempted three field goals, including two from over 50 yards, but he only made one, which was under 40 yards. The Raiders kicker’s first miss was blocked, and his second one clanged off one of the uprights. Neither would indicate any kind of major regression on Carlson’s part. However, one has to wonder if the lack of in-game reps has made the field goal unit a bit rusty.
Is There Any Hope For The Raiders’ Kicker?
The fact that Carlson had more opportunities against the Packers is a very positive sign. Had he made both of those kicks, that would have been a 15-point week. Again, one was blocked, and the other was as close as you can get. On most nights, those are sailing through.
The bigger question is not whether Carlson will make the most of those opportunities next time; it is whether there will be a next time. This past week could have been a fluke against a less than stellar defense. Perhaps, but it is not like Las Vegas had some kind of offensive eruption. Even if they had made those kicks, they would only have scored 23 points. That is right around the league average of 22.3.
The real fluke is the 15.8 points per game that the Raiders have averaged thus far. Statistically speaking, the larger the sample size, the less deviation there is from the mean. In layman’s terms, as the season goes on, the Raiders’ scoring offense will get closer to the league average, meaning it will go up. Still, the Raiders will likely have a below-average scoring offense. At best, Carlson might start getting an extra field goal attempt per game.
Final Verdict?
Let’s assume that going forward, Daniel Carlson gets to try two field goals and two extra points a week and makes everything. If that happens, he could score between eight and 12 points, depending on the distance of the kicks. Splitting the difference, let’s assume Carlson starts averaging 10 points per week. Again, this is assuming he is perfect. That average would only make Carlson the eighth-best kicker in fantasy football.
The upside is not there.
At best, he is going to be in the middle of the pack. The lack of opportunities makes the margin for error razor-thin. Even if Carlson has a 15-point outing or two this year, it isn’t worth the weeks where he gets five or less. For now, it is time to drop Carlson. You can stream kickers each week based on matchups and come away with eight or more points most weeks. That is not a guarantee with the Raiders kicker. While it is time to say goodbye to Carlson for now, it doesn’t have to be forever. You can always pick him up later in the year if the Raiders have a favorable matchup. For the time being, you should send him packing.
*Top Photo: Wade Vandervort/Las Vegas Raiders