The Raiders’ rookie tight end had a lot of hype coming into the 2023 NFL season. It wasn’t just for what he could do for Las Vegas; there was also his intriguing potential on the fantasy gridiron. Unfortunately, things haven’t gotten off to a great start. Michael Mayer was not targeted until his second game, and he only recorded one catch for two yards (and a two-point conversion) in the first month of his professional career.
Prior to his breakout performance against New England this past week, Mayer had a total of just 9.1 fantasy points in PPR formats through the first five weeks of the season. There was plenty of reason to write him off in fantasy long before week six. However, it may be time to consider reversing course.
Raiders TE Michael Mayer Has Shown Steady Growth
While he did put up some stinkers early on, Mayer has never stopped making progress. With the exception of week four against the Chargers, in which quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did not play, Mayer’s fantasy points have increased each week.
During Week 5 on Monday Night Football, Mayer caught two of his three targets for 39 yards, netting 5.9 fantasy points. These numbers were all season/career-highs at that point.
You could see that the rookie was slowly carving out a role for himself. That slow build-up finally came to a crescendo the following week against New England. Mayer was targeted six times and erupted for five catches and 75 yards. His 12.5 fantasy points were fifth among tight ends in PPR formats for the week.
This has left us all wondering “what’s next?”
Will This Success be Sustained?
This is the million dollar question. For now, it is hard not to be optimistic. Mayer has had a fairly consistent upward trajectory all season—we need to see how high the ceiling is.
Keep in mind, the Raiders rookie put up double-digit points last week without scoring a touchdown. Eventually, he is going to start finding the end zone. Once that happens, he could have tremendous fantasy value. Even if his target volume was to plateau, his touchdown-rate can only go up.
The biggest concern is that this rise in production could hit a wall at some point. That could come as soon as this week with Jimmy Garoppolo potentially being out again.
Mayer’s only zero-point game since Week 1 came without the Raiders’ starting quarterback. Even if that turns out to be a fluke, there is also the dreaded “rookie wall” to contend with.
Most rookies, especially offensive players, start to break out a few weeks into the season. Then, they light it up for a while, but fall off towards the end of the year. If Mayer continues to be productive, NFL defenses will start looking for ways to stop him. His fantasy numbers could dip again once he stops flying under the radar.
We have gone over what there is to like about Mayer in terms of fantasy, and we discussed some concerns. Now, we have to figure out what to do with all of this information.
Advice
Mayer is available in most leagues right now. On ESPN, he is rostered in 6.5 percent of leagues. That won’t last for long if he has another game like he did last week. The chances of that happening aren’t bad, either. Las Vegas is playing a putrid Bears team this week. If you want Mayer on your roster, you probably have about 10 days to grab him in free agency.
The rookie doesn’t have a large enough body of work to be a TE1 right now, but he is a solid backup. If you have a starting tight end with a bye coming up in the next few weeks, Mayer is worth a look. His best weeks will likely come over the next month. If you are still struggling to find a consistent starter, there are probably safer options out there.
Michael Mayer is probably going to be a solid TE2 going forward this year. See how this week plays out first; if he puts up at least 10 again this week, you should pounce. At the very least, you could probably flip him for some solid value in a few weeks.
*Top Photo: Getty Images Pool