It was unclear where Jakobi Meyers would fit in the Raiders offense when he was signed this past offseason. We quickly found that he had a massive role, with Josh McDaniels calling the shots. Nevertheless, nobody expected this kind of fantasy football production.
Even in a situation like last week, where the offense was stagnant and struggled to score, Meyers still put up 18 points in PPR formats. That is right around his average for the year, now sitting at 17.6 points per game. Those numbers have made him the 12th highest-scoring receiver in fantasy football to this point.
We have enough data after seven games (six actually played by Meyers) to feel certain that his production is not a fluke. The tricky part now is figuring out Meyers’ fantasy football value. His current numbers suggest he is on the fringe of being a WR1 but is essentially a high-end WR2. Every fantasy manager wants to know where he stands for the remainder of the 2023 campaign. Determining his value going forward is important, as we enter peak fantasy trade season. Let’s dive in!
Where Are Jakobi Meyers’ Points Coming From?
This is crucial to understanding fantasy football value. Fantasy points can be inflated with big plays and touchdowns, even this far into the year. That is often not sustainable for an entire season. However, when looking at what Meyers has done thus far, there is a lot to like.
In PPR formats, Meyers has 105.5 points this season. Of those points, a little over a third comes from receptions (37 catches for 37 points). The same goes for receiving yards (385 yards for 38.5 points). Touchdowns (five for 30 points) make up less than 30 percent of Meyers’ fantasy production. That is fantastic! Why? Because it means that he is not touchdown-dependent, which is a worry for many breakout fantasy football stars.
Also, it is great to see that the yards are not a huge outlier either. Meyers’ points come from a steady stream of receptions at an average of just over 10 yards per catch. That is much more sustainable than a guy relying on two or three long receptions per game. It is also worth noting that Meyers has only one game in which he recorded less than five catches. His volume is very promising for the rest of 2023.
Is There Room for Growth?
Those numbers are great, but Jakobi Meyers is still sitting just outside the top ten receivers in fantasy football. However, it wouldn’t take much to push him over the top. Let’s see whether any meat is left on the bone, or if the Raiders wideout has peaked.
Looking at Meyers’ receptions compared to his targets, we can immediately see a significant gap between the two numbers. The Las Vegas wideout has been targeted 56 times but only has 37 catches, about two-thirds of his targets. Funny enough, this isn’t due to Meyers having an issue with drops. If the Raiders’ triumvirate of mediocre quarterbacks could just do a slightly better job of delivering catchable balls, we could easily see him catching closer to 75 percent of his targets.
That is likely the easiest way to increase Meyers’ production, as his target share cannot go much higher than it already is. Right now, the former Patriot commands just under a quarter of the Raiders’ total targets. That makes him Vegas’ second-most targeted player behind Davante Adams with about 30 percent. Given that Adams and Meyers are already combining for more than half of the team’s targets, it is hard to see how they could be targeted much more. The only way Meyers would get a significant increase in targets would be to eat into Adams’ share. That is simply not happening. If anything, the opposite would be more likely, as Adams already doesn’t feel like he is being targeted enough.
The only other way for Meyers to score more fantasy points would be to score more touchdowns. His five scores through six games played have him on pace for 13 on the season. That is more than double his previous career-high of six, which he put up last year. Chances are that Meyers’ current rate of almost one touchdown per game is more likely to go down than it is to go up. That seems to be the prevailing thought for most of Meyers’ numbers.
Final Verdict
Meyers appears to have maxed out his fantasy football production in the Raiders’ offense. He is already on pace for career-highs in catches, yards, and touchdowns. Keep in mind that Meyers is doing this after going from being the top receiver in New England to the No. 2 guy in Vegas. One other unlikely way Meyers’ numbers could go up is if the Raiders’ quarterback play improves. That is painfully difficult to imagine. More than likely, we have already seen Meyers’ best in terms of fantasy production.
With that in mind, he should be valued as a high-end WR2. If you already have him on your roster, you are probably quite satisfied with that. He was probably the third or fourth wideout that you drafted. For that reason, you may already be set at the position and looking to trade him. You may be able to find a trade partner who believes in his WR1 potential. If you can, milk them for all you can. Getting an RB1, or an elite quarterback or tight end, in return for Meyers would be a huge steal.
On the flip side, don’t give up the farm if you are looking to acquire his services. If you have a gluttony of running backs, maybe offer a high-end RB2. Those managers with good depth should feel comfortable coughing up solid flex players, as well. Unfortunately, the asking price for Jakobi Meyers will likely be much higher given how he is currently playing. If that is the case, let someone else overpay.
Thanks for reading. Hopefully, this advice gets you one step closer to a fantasy football title!
*Top Photo: AP Photo/Ryan Sun
