We are back at it again with more Gamble Ramble. Last week, we continued to p*** our money away on that Miami Dolphins game. Our lock of the week was the only bet that hit, taking us to 10-23 on the year. Worse yet, we dropped another 1.08 units, and we are now down 13.53 for the season. That number hurts to type. Nevertheless, we will keep on swinging this week, with three more picks for the Las Vegas Raiders’ matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs.
All lines come via Draft Kings as of Saturday morning. Let’s kick things off with our best value bet of the week.
Best Value: Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)
We have missed on this pick several times this year, but the value is still there. Adams remains a great candidate to score every week. He is simply too talented.
This week presents a great opportunity to get back to the end zone. In last year’s matchups, Adams had two touchdowns on just eight catches. While Kansas City does have a solid secondary, they don’t have anyone who can handle Adams one-on-one. Like most teams, they will probably bracket him with a safety for most of the game, but that only does so much. At some point, the Raiders wideout will get loose.
At the end of the day, you are getting Las Vegas’ best offensive weapon at +190. You cannot pass up that kind of value. Roll with Adams to score this week.
Lock of the Week: Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
This one is pretty simple. The Raiders have trouble stopping opposing running backs all year, especially when opponents have a feature back. After using a committee for several years, the Chiefs finally have their guy in Pacheco.
It is worth mentioning that the Raiders have allowed seven different running backs to eclipse 67 yards rushing this year. Two others also reached 65. Pacheco should get plenty of opportunities in this game as well. More than likely, the Chiefs will be playing with a lead and looking to run out the clock. Their lead back has done very well when he has gotten the ball 15 times or more.
To further solidify this lock, we got news late this week that Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby is doubtful for this game. Despite playing on the edge, his absence makes it much easier to run the ball. Even if Crosby plays as he intends to, you have to wonder how hobbled he’ll be.
You don’t have to double him, and you don’t have to worry about him chasing the play down from behind. Expect Pacheco to rush for 70 easily. Take the over.
Long-Shot of the Week: Raiders Money Line (+425)
The Raiders are a colossal underdog in this matchup. Even if they had their best player available in Crosby, Kansas City would be heavily favorited. Without him, Las Vegas has no shot, right? That is what conventional wisdom would have you believe. The NFL is funny, though. Just when we are sure that we know something about this league, we are proven wrong.
There is reason to believe that the Raiders can make this upset happen. As we saw last week against Miami, the defense can keep them close with just about anyone. While Crosby may have been a big part of that, Patrick Graham has this whole unit playing well. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders may not be scoring a ton this year, but they have the talent to make it happen. At some point, they are going to put it all together; why not this week?
At the end of the day, this is more of a vibe pick than anything else. The Raiders simply seem to be a different team than the one that the Chiefs have dominated in recent years. Also, +425 is an insane line for an NFL divisional matchup. We can’t ignore it. Try throwing a couple bucks at Las Vegas this week at home.
*Top Photo: Getty Images