As Week 15 quickly approaches, let’s examine how we can make some money as the Las Vegas Raiders host the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday afternoon.
We are back with a quick turnaround for another edition of Gamble Ramble. Last week was rough, as we bet on offense in what turned out to be a defensive struggle. We went 1-2 for the week, dropping us to 11-28 for the year. Also, we lost another 0.95 units, taking us down 17.48 for the season.
Looking at the injury report for this week, we could be in for yet another low-scoring affair. Luckily, we are ready for it this time around with some great picks to benefit from a boring game. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Tuesday evening. Let’s get into this week’s picks, starting with our best value pick of the week.
Best Value: Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+160)
Yep, it is going to be this kind of game. O’Connell has struggled mightily since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo, especially in the scoring department. There is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue this week.
In his five games since becoming the full-time starter, O’Connell has thrown for just three touchdown passes. That is less than one per game. He is likely going to have trouble exceeding his average against the Chargers. O’Connell faced Los Angeles earlier this year, and the Chargers sacked him seven times. This time around, the Raiders could be missing two of their starting offensive linemen, Andre James and Kolton Miller.
O’Connell is likely going to have a long night. It will take a miracle for him to get anything positive going. At +170, we will happily bet against that.
Lock of the Week: Under 34 Total Points (-110)
These picks kind of go hand in hand. While O’Connell may struggle to find the end zone, so will just about everyone else. The Raiders are in especially dire straits, as they could not only have a handicapped offensive line, but Josh Jacobs may be out as well. That doesn’t bode well for a Raiders offense taking on a team that held them to 17 last time around.
It doesn’t get any better on the other side of the ball. Easton Stick (who?!) will take over under center as Justin Herbert is officially done for the season. The backup quarterback is also going to have a limited supply of weapons at his disposal. Already missing Mike Williams, the Chargers could now be without Keenan Allen this week as well. That all leaves a lot of new faces to incorporate into the offense in such a short week. To make matters worse, the Raiders currently boast a top-ten scoring defense in the NFL.
This is going to get very ugly. The total might not even reach 20, let alone 34. Hammer the “under.” Honestly, this game has all the makings of a kicking duel.
Long-Shot of The Week: No Touchdown Scorer (+2200)
If there is any chance we sit through another painfully boring Raiders game in which nobody scores a single touchdown for the second game in a row, we have to make it worth our while. This is simply hedging against our own misery. If you must watch this dumpster-fire of a game, you might as well earn money for it.
Thursday Night Football is an absolute abomination. For most NFL players, every game is like experiencing dozens of car crashes. A week’s rest is already not very much, especially after doing it over and over again for three months. Cutting players’ recovery time in half is insane. These games are usually terrible because both teams are usually depleted. Even if it were played on a Sunday, this game would have been boring. What we will witness in this Thursday night matchup, especially on the offensive side of the ball, may not even qualify as football.
The odds actually feel generous at +2200. The Raiders did look particularly close to scoring a touchdown last week. Also, this defense has feasted on backup quarterbacks all year, with the exception of Tyson Bagent. Consider selecting this pick as a small reward for enduring this futile exercise.
*Top Photo: Stephen R. Sylvanie, USA TODAY Sports