Trade talks surrounding Las Vegas Raiders first-team All-Pro wideout Davante Adams have been circulating social media nonstop since the 2023 offseason. After a few days of Adams, New York Jets rumors on social media this week, Adams’ agents chimed in to call these rumors “baseless” and “unfounded speculation,” noting their client is “expected to be with the Raiders as there has been absolutely no trade talk – period.”
That puts an end to trade talks surrounding Davante Adams, right? Not so fast.
On Wednesday, an X user began circulating a rumor that the Las Vegas Raiders are interested in trading for Brandon Aiyuk, claiming Adams would be shipped to San Francisco in the process. The user bases this on a notion that Adams “has no real money on his deal after this season.”
And thus, less than 24 hours after Adams’ agents emphasized there have been no trade talks involving their client, rumors once again began running rampant on social media.
At this point, it’s evident there’s nothing anybody can say that will put a stop to these trade rumors. The rumors can still be investigated, however, and their validity can be put to the test in other ways.
What would trading Davante Adams mean for the Raiders? Does adding Aiyuk make sense for Las Vegas, and conversely, would acquiring Adams be a good move for San Francisco?
The rumored trade between Davante Adams and the San Francisco 49ers: A deep dive
The value of Davante Adams, Brandon Aiyuk
There are two truths regarding Davante Adams that may not be ideal for the Raiders, but are truths nonetheless: Adams’ cap hit shoots up to $44.1 million for both the ’25 and ’26 seasons, and the six-time Pro Bowler will turn 32 years old later in the year.
These may be facts that the Raiders themselves are okay with – after all, the team agreed to these terms knowing this would one day be a reality – but stand as clear deterrents for any of the other 31 clubs looking to acquire Adams.
As such, Adams’ value isn’t close to what it was when the Silver and Black sent a first and second-rounder to Green Bay to snag the then-29-year-old. It also doesn’t help that the Fresno State alum missed both All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors this year after posting 1,144 receiving yards, his lowest total since 2019 – although he was on pace for more receiving yards in 2019 than his ’23 campaign – and only eight touchdowns.
On the other side, Aiyuk racked up 1,342 yards through the air with seven touchdowns en route to a second-team All-Pro. The 26-year-old wideout did this on 28 fewer receptions than Adams.
The harsh truth is, the value of the up-and-coming Aiyuk likely succeeds that of Adams’. It would be far from unreasonable for San Francisco to demand additional compensation for their wideout.
One advantage that the Raiders, or any team who approaches the 49ers for Aiyuk, may have is Aiyuk’s requested trade. A team typically holds little to no leverage when trading a player who’s requested a trade. If Aiyuk is truly unwilling to play another down in San Francisco, Adams alone may be enough.
Would that be something the Raiders are interested in?
From the Raiders’ perspective
Although Aiyuk’s value is likely higher than Adams’, that doesn’t mean Davante Adams isn’t the better player. If the Raiders want to start winning now – and they do – it wouldn’t make much sense for them to trade a player who is better overall, plus the possibility of adding bonus compensation, for a player who is not as good as the one they traded away.
Aiyuk is a do-it-all receiver who plays great both outside and in the slot, excels when blanketed in coverage, has sure hands and has scored multiple career touchdowns on the ground. The Raiders already have a guy just like that – Jakobi Meyers.
Despite Aiyuk being the more accomplished player, Meyers already gives Las Vegas much of what they’d get from Aiyuk.
Last season, Aiyuk led his team with eight contested catches on 13 such targets. Meyers’ mark of 11 was second to Adams’ 12, but Meyers did this on 13 less targets than his All-Pro counterpart. Aiyuk’s drop percentage of 2.6% was the second-lowest among all San Francisco wide receivers, trailing only Ray-Ray McCloud. Similarly, Meyers’ 5.3% drop percentage was second-lowest at his position among Las Vegas wide receivers.
And, just as Aiyuk is a threat to score with his legs, Meyers rushed for two touchdowns last season.
Not only would the Raiders be trading a better player for a worse one – a sentiment that is no slander to Aiyuk; Davante Adams is simply as good as it gets – but they’d be trading for the same mold of receiver they already have across from where Aiyuk would stand.
Is the connection that Aiyuk and Raiders head coach Antonio Piece formed at Arizona State enough to overcome these clear drawbacks, including the yet to be talked about dead cap hit?
Dead cap hit trouble in Sin City
The current dead cap hit enforced by trading Adams isn’t an ideal number for the Raiders. At the conclusion of the ’24 season, however, there’s an ‘out’ in his contract. Las Vegas will then be able to trade their star wideout for a one-time dead cap hit of $15.7 million.
As Spotrac notes, if Adams is moved before then, the Raiders will take on more than double in dead cap.
For that reason, should the Raiders elect to trade Adams, it will likely be during next year’s offseason. This would also give Adams the chance to put his lackluster ’23 season – for his standard – behind him and prove he’s still the best of the best. The Raiders would benefit greatly in this scenario as an improved ’24 campaign would boost his value.
If you’ve ever looked at a player’s dead cap hit via a post-June 1st trade/cut, you may notice a player’s dead cap hit is always less after June 1st. Overall, that isn’t actually the case.
A pre-June 1st trade/cut is a one-time dead cap hit that stays around for one season. A post-June 1st trade/cut, on the other hand, is the same total number but spread out through multiple seasons.
The cap hit of Davante Adams
On the cap hit front, Adams is scheduled to take up $25.3 million in 2024. That’s a good number for a player of his caliber. 2025 and 2026 are when the numbers get scary, however.
In 2025, Adams’ cap hit will jump to $44.1 million. It will stay at that number for the ’26 season as well.
For reference, San Francisco is currently set to have $38.9 million total available cap space in 2025. This means, as of right now, the 49ers couldn’t afford Adams’ contract next season, even with an additional offseason of getting contracts off the books. Even worse, that $38.9 million doesn’t include the cap space their draft picks will take up next season, nor the additions they’ll take on to fill the roster in the meantime.
San Francisco isn’t alone, though. Adams’ cap hit in 2025 is so high that, at this moment, only 10 teams across the National Football League would have enough cap space to fit him in next season.
There’s more to this on the 49ers side than Adams’ cap hit, too.
From the 49ers’ perspective
San Francisco set their price with 26-year-old Brandon Aiyuk to somewhere around $26 million annually, as reported earlier in the month.
The question is, why would San Francisco be so unwilling to go higher on their reigning second-team All-Pro wideout, but gladly turn around and take on the $36.250 million base salary owed to Adams in both 2025 and 2026? The same Adams who’s five years older than their second-team All-Pro, and fresh off a less productive season.
How the backend of Adams’ contract bodes with San Francisco is particularly important.
Adams will be soaking up 44.1 million in cap during the 2025 offseason. For a 49ers team with a 24-year-old quarterback set for his first payday, that’s far from ideal. In fact, that’s likely a big factor to why San Francisco has a set number in mind for Aiyuk.
Sure, the 49ers could always choose to move on from the then-33-year-old Adams at that time, but if that’s the plan, why make this swap? Why trade away your 26-year-old second-team All-Pro for an older, two-year rental fresh off of a down year? Getting draft picks from a team is far more logical than that.
All-in-all, neither side would get much benefit from this swap. Furthermore, the basis of the swap stemming from no ‘real money’ being in Adams’ contract after this season is blatantly untrue.
But of course, Adams’ agents have already stated there are no trade talks involving him. A player of his caliber is of extreme importance to a team that’s trying to establish a winning culture.
As for Davante Adams himself, he doesn’t wish to go anywhere. “I’m locked in with the Raiders, and I feel really good about this team,” the superstar emphasized less than a week ago.
*Top Photo: Harry How/Getty Images
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