As the NFL draft draws near, we are reaching the point where we at least have a decent idea of what is to come. Nevertheless, the draft is unpredictable and could still go in a multitude of different directions. Let’s take a look at some possible outcomes for the Las Vegas Raiders in the first round of the NFL draft.
Best-Case Scenario: The Raiders Select… Shedeur Sanders, Quarterback, Colorado
How we got here…
In this scenario, only one quarterback comes off the board in the first five picks. This scenario is necessary for the selection to occur. You could argue that if Sanders falls to number six, the Raiders might select his teammate, Travis Hunter. However, it is highly unlikely that will happen.
In this case, Hunter likely goes first overall to the Titans. Then, the Browns opt for Cam Ward out of Miami. At three, the Giants decide they just don’t like Sanders and take someone like Penn State edge defender Abdul Carter. At picks four and five, the Patriots and Jaguars, not needing quarterbacks, draft some combination of Will Campbell, Tetairoa McMillan, Will Johnson, or Tyler Warren.
Why this is the best scenario…
While the Geno Smith trade does eliminate any immediate need for a quarterback, it should not have any impact on the Raiders’ draft day decision-making. At 34, Smith is not the long-term solution at quarterback. The Raiders should secure the most crucial position in the game for the next decade by selecting Sanders. You could also argue that the Smith trade makes it even more crucial that the Raiders grab a young quarterback now, as they may not be picking in the top ten again for some time.
Some may argue that the best-case scenario would actually be Ward falling and not Sanders. However, for one thing, Ward’s potential makes it less likely he makes it to the sixth pick. Moreover, Ward’s potential makes him less certain than Sanders. The Miami prospect’s improvisational prowess that he displayed in college may never translate to the NFL.
While Sanders may not have an astronomical ceiling, he displays all the baseline traits of a reliable NFL starting quarterback and has enough upside to warrant the use of a top-ten pick.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Raiders Select… Ashton Jeanty, Running Back, Boise State
How we got here…
In this scenario, all the best players at high-value positions come off the board right away. The top three picks would likely be some combination of the two quarterbacks and Travis Hunter. At four and five, the Patriots and Jaguars select Abdul Carter and Will Johnson, respectively.
Why this is the worst scenario…
This is not to imply that the Raiders would be disappointed to wind up with Jeanty. Nevertheless, you would normally hope to shore up a more valuable position with that pick. To take a running back this high, they should be a game-changing offensive weapon like Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, or even Derrick Henry. As talented as Jeanty is, he does not have the elite traits that those other backs possess. If the Raiders do find themselves in this situation, they should and would try to trade down.
However, given the lack of elite prospects in this class, they may struggle to find a suitor. In that case, they settle for a slight reach on Jeanty and take solace in the fact that they secured the best running back in the class.
Most Likely Scenario: The Raiders Select… Will Johnson, Cornerback, Michigan
How we got here…
Much like the worst-case scenario, both quarterbacks and Hunter are gone in the first three picks. This scenario feels like a near certainty. Thereafter, the next two picks are probably going to be some combination of Carter and either McMillan or Will Campbell.
The logic behind that assumption is that Carter is considered by most to be one of the top three non-quarterbacks in this class, and the latter two players mentioned would address major needs for both New England and Jacksonville.
Why this is the most likely scenario…
The key difference between this situation and the worst-case scenario is whether or not Johnson falls this far. Personally, I have him as my top corner and my second-highest graded prospect overall. But for some teams, injury concerns might push him down the board.
At the end of the day, that should not deter the Raiders from selecting the Michigan cornerback. He is a big, physical, shutdown corner that breaks on the ball with authority. His feel for zone and off-man concepts makes him a perfect fit for Patrick Graham’s defense. Johnson is also talented enough to immediately start opposite Jakorian Bennett and create a fearsome duo. If the draft shakes out this way, it is difficult to see the Raiders passing on him.
*Top Photo: Getty Images
Las Vegas Raiders GM John Spytek Getting A Close Look At Ashton Jeanty