We are back at it again discussing draft scenarios for the AFC West. Previously, we explored the dream scenario for each team. This time around, we will be delving into some potential nightmares. Just like last time, we will be using a combination of consensus mock draft data and my personal draft notes.
Let’s begin with the Las Vegas Raiders…
Pick No. 6: The Raiders Select… Ashton Jeanty, Running Back, Boise State
How we got here…
For the Raiders to consider taking a running back this high, a lot has to go wrong. In this scenario, both quarterbacks get taken early. Additionally, the Raiders lose their best cornerback options in Travis Hunter and Will Johnson. At this point, Abdul Carter would be the pick. However, he is also out of the picture in this scenario.
Why this is the “Worst-Case” scenario
In this scenario, the Raiders, once again, come out of the first round of the draft without their quarterback of the future. They also miss out on two premium prospects at another high-value position at which they have significant needs: cornerback. The absence of Carter also deprives them of the opportunity to acquire a potential premier edge defender to complement Maxx Crosby.
While running back is a giant need for Las Vegas, it is still a low-value position. Taking one this high only works if that guy has an elite physical profile. Jeanty does not. Even in this scenario, the Raiders would probably be better off trading down. However, in this situation, there isn’t really anyone available worth trading up for. Unless a team is absolutely in love with LSU tackle Will Campbell, the Raiders are probably stuck at six. In that scenario, they likely have to accept the situation and hope that Jeanty can establish himself as one of the league’s top three backs.
Up next, we move all the way down to pick 20 with the next AFC West squad, the Denver Broncos, on the clock…
Pick No. 20: The Broncos Select… Luther Burden, Wide Receiver, Missouri
How we got here…
In this scenario, tight ends Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland get snapped up by the Jets and Colts, respectively. On top of that, more opportunities to add offensive firepower are taken away with Jeanty and two wide receivers, Tetairoa McMillan and Emeka Egbuka, all being selected early. There is also a big run of edge rushers, with four coming off the board in the first 19 picks. On the defensive side, the absence of the top four secondary players and linebacker Jihaad Campbell exacerbates the situation.
Why this is the “Worst-Case” scenario
This kind of stinks for Denver because they miss out on both a dynamic tight end and a high-level edge prospect. Additionally, Denver no longer has the best chance to find a true number one receiver, and there are no more elite defensive prospects available. However, even in this scenario, the Broncos are not in too bad of shape.
Even if he ends up being more of a slot guy at the next level, Burden would still give the Broncos another dynamic playmaker on offense. His ability after the catch will make him especially useful in Sean Payton’s offense. This is just the worst-case scenario because, more than likely, a talented player that Denver can use will fall to them instead. Nevertheless, if they do get “stuck,” they can settle for this luxury pick.
Up next, we move down a couple picks to the next AFC West team, the Los Angeles Chargers…
Pick No. 22: The Chargers Select… Nic Scourton, EDGE, Texas A&M
How we got here…
Similarly to the Broncos, the Chargers would not be happy to see a bunch of tight ends, receivers, and edge defenders come off the board. It could get even worse if Denver were to take Luther Burden and, even worse than that, if the Steelers were to then select Matthew Golden out of Texas. That would effectively eliminate the Chargers’ option to draft a pass catcher in the first round.
Why this is the “Worst-Case” scenario
The Chargers really need to come out of day one with some sort of offensive weapon. The only offensive skill-position player left with a first-round grade from me is Stanford wideout Elic Ayomanor. However, his skillset is almost identical to what Los Angeles already has in Ladd McConkey. With offense off the table, the Chargers would likely hope to grab a replacement for Joey Bosa off the edge. Regrettably, they have already lost four of them.
The Chargers opt for Scourton, my fifth-ranked edge defender, in a truly dire situation. What really stinks is that Scourton is not even that great of a replacement for Bosa in terms of sack production. Unfortunately, L.A.’s only other option here would be to reach for a player like Mike Green, who has concerns regarding his suitability as a first-round pick. At the end of the day, at least Scourton has a high floor as a talented 3-4 defensive end at the next level.
It’s time to conclude our discussion with the top team in the AFC West, the Kansas City Chiefs…
Pick No. 31: The Chiefs Select… Josh Conerly Jr., Tackle, Oregon
How we got here…
The last thing the Chiefs want to see in the back half of day one is a run on offensive linemen. In this scenario, that is precisely what happens. To add insult to injury, there are no first-round-caliber receivers available either.
Why this is the “Worst-Case” scenario
Unless they can get a big-time playmaker at a skill position, the Chiefs basically have to draft an offensive lineman early. You could make the case that their lack of an offensive line cost them a third consecutive Super Bowl. For Kansas City to then have to reach for a guy that should probably not go until day two would be a major disappointment.
That being said, they at least get a solid prospect in Conerly. He should become a quality tackle in the NFL, either on the right side or the left. Nevertheless, the Chiefs may want to consider moving up in the draft to avoid this scenario.
*Top Photo: Getty Images
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