The Las Vegas Raiders‘ 2024 season was a definite bridge year. Quarterbacks Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell saw time under center. That season was a clear audition, yet it seems the team is still searching for a definitive answer at the most critical position. Consequently, the Raiders are looking for a bona fide leader. Therefore, the conversation turns to Geno Smith. He was the prized offseason acquisition for the Silver and Black. Smith’s career arc is remarkable, with a difficult start and a celebrated revival in Seattle. The central question for the 2025 season is clear. Is the veteran the steadfast leader the Raiders’ offense needs? Furthermore, is he a short-term solution whose best days are behind him? The answer to this question could impact NFL odds for the Raiders. For example, a proven starter like Smith could naturally shift the odds in their favor.
The Veteran Stabilizer
Geno Smith, even with his slight regression in 2023, proved he is a capable NFL starter. He is a clear and demonstrable upgrade over the Minshew and O’Connell duo. In fact, his 2022 season was exceptional. He led the NFL with a 69.8% completion percentage. He also threw for 30 touchdowns and 4,282 yards. This performance earned him the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award. His passer rating was a stellar 100.9.
Moreover, even in 2023, he posted a solid 92.1 passer rating. He also threw 20 touchdowns. This kind of consistent baseline production is precisely what the Raiders have lacked. He offers a higher ceiling than Minshew. He also provides a much higher floor than O’Connell.
Smith also has a proven track record of working well with elite wide receivers. His success with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Seattle is a key selling point. He demonstrated he can distribute the ball effectively to a top-tier receiving corps. Therefore, his precision and deep-ball accuracy could perfectly target Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. A quality NFL quarterback is crucial for keeping a player like Bowers at the top of his game.
A significant aspect of Geno Smith’s appeal is his leadership. His leadership style is not boisterous. Instead, it comes from his arduous journey. He has experienced the absolute lowest points of being a starting quarterback. Due to this experience, he leads by example, professionalism, and preparation. This mature perspective could be a stabilizing presence in the Raiders’ volatile locker room.
The Reasons For Hesitation
There are, however, valid reasons for caution with Smith’s addition. At 35 years old during the 2025 season, age and potential decline are real concerns. A quarterback who relies on timing and accuracy can experience a sharp physical drop-off. Therefore, was his drop-off from 2022 to 2023 a sign of things to come?
His passer rating fell by 8.8 points from 2022 to 2023. His touchdowns dropped by 10. However, his interceptions remained constant, with 11 in 2022 and nine in 2023. These numbers occurred in two fewer games. The Raiders must question whether the 2023 season was the start of a downward trend for the NFL veteran.
Another question is whether his success was a product of the system. He thrived under Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Waldron is a McVay disciple. The Raiders’ offensive scheme might be entirely different. Can Smith show he is system-proof, or was his renaissance a right place, right time phenomenon?
The Raiders’ offensive line has been a persistent weakness. Smith is mobile enough to navigate a clean pocket. However, he is not an elite scrambler. He cannot consistently create something from nothing. His passer rating under pressure in 2023 was a low 67.5. This is a significant drop. Therefore, if the Raiders cannot protect him, his effectiveness could plummet.
Geno Smith Presents A Calculated Risk
Smith is not a simple “yes” or “no” decision. The answer depends on the Raiders’ goals. If their goal is immediate respectability and a return to the playoffs, Smith is an excellent choice. He would raise the offense’s floor immensely. He would make them a tough opponent every week.
However, if the goal is to identify a long-term, franchise-altering quarterback, Smith is not that player. In this scenario, he is the perfect bridge quarterback. He’s a leader who can win games. Smith can also mentor a rookie quarterback. That rookie might be Cam Miller or someone else in 2026. Ultimately, the Smith signing shows a philosophical shift. It’s a move away from risky, high-variance gambles. Instead, it is a move toward competent, stable, and professional quarterback play. Whether that steadfast presence is the bridge to a better future or the destination itself will be the defining story of the Raiders’ 2025 season.
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*Top Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images