Can the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West in 2026? Believe it or not, there are some compelling reasons they have a legitimate shot to dethrone the division’s top teams.
Yes, really. Stop laughing. Here’s the case.
1. The bar in Denver is lower than it looks.
Troy Renck of The Denver Post recently ran a blind numbers comparison of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix, and Nix held up just fine. That’s a compliment to Nix, but it’s also a quiet admission that the gap between “MVP contender” and “solid AFC West starter” has narrowed. If Nix, playing conservative football under Sean Payton, can hang with Mahomes and Herbert statistically, the division isn’t the murderers’ row it gets billed as.
It’s competitive, but “competitive” is climbable.
2. Last place means nowhere to go but up.
The Raiders finished 3-14 last season and dead last in the division at 1-5. That’s the bad news. The good news is the floor has already been found. Teams rarely stay at the bottom two years running, especially ones that just added the No. 1 overall pick.
3. Fernando Mendoza is the actual plan, not the backup plan.
Kirk Cousins will start the season, and Las Vegas insists Mendoza will be brought along slowly. Read between the lines: this is a team buying time for its franchise quarterback, not hedging on him. If Mendoza looks ready by midseason, expect a transition, not a stall. A rookie learning behind a two-time Pro Bowler is a better setup than getting thrown to the wolves in Week 1.
Related: Biggest questions facing the Raiders ahead of training camp
4. The floor was low, and the fixes are obvious.
Las Vegas threw the second-most interceptions in the league last year (19) and finished last in rushing yards (1,317) and rushing touchdowns (5). Yeah, that’s not a mystery; it’s a checklist for the new regime. Protect the ball and establish a run game, and the offense improves on its own math. Klint Kubiak’s track record developing quarterbacks in Minnesota gives him real credibility here, and he inherits a roster with nowhere left to hide from accountability.
Nobody is picking the Raiders to win the AFC West, and the division is loaded enough that skepticism is fair. But between a division that’s more beatable than its reputation, a quarterback plan built for the long game and a coaching staff with something to prove, Las Vegas has the ingredients for a fast turnaround. Worst to first has happened before. It just needs Mendoza to be who they think he is.
*Top Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images