The Las Vegas Raiders‘ 2026 season should be about more than wins and losses. Here’s what really needs to develop for this team to take the next step.
Brock Bowers is the Raiders’ best offensive player and their most reliable target, so missing the first two games (and I believe it will end up being more) takes the easiest early win off the board and makes an already difficult Week 2 even harder. He’ll be out for the home opener against Miami and the trip to the Chargers. Until he returns, Michael Mayer, Ashton Jeanty as a receiver, Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor and Jack Bech will have to carry more of the passing game. That is a lot to ask of a first-year staff and a veteran quarterback who is still learning a new system.
Still, the rest of the outlook does not collapse. Klint Kubiak’s scheme, Jeanty’s Year 2 jump, the offensive line with Tyler Linderbaum and Maxx Crosby, and the young pieces on defense remain the foundation. Fernando Mendoza will sit behind Kirk Cousins until the Browns game in Week 12. The season is still about whether all three phases improve from September to January, not about the final record.
Here is the updated week-by-week outlook.
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Week 1 vs. Miami Dolphins (Loss)
It’s a home opener without Bowers. Miami is also in transition, but the Raiders no longer have their safety valve in the middle of the field, so Cousins has to work the perimeter and check down to Jeanty. The offense sputters in the red zone. Crosby and the front seven keep it close, but Las Vegas drops a 20-17 game it probably wins with a healthy Bowers, a disappointing start that shows how thin the receiving room is without the All-Pro tight end.
Week 2 at Los Angeles Chargers (Loss)
Bowers is still out, and Justin Herbert and a physical Chargers team that went 11-6 last year control the line and the clock. Jeanty runs hard and Mayer does what he can, but the Raiders lose 27-13. Two games in, the offense has not found a consistent second option. The scheme is there; the talent around Cousins is not, at least not yet.
Week 3 at New Orleans Saints (Win)
Bowers returns, and the difference is immediate. He works the middle, occupies linebackers and gives Cousins a trusted target. The Saints are also rebuilding, so Jeanty finds room, the offensive line holds up, and Las Vegas wins 21-16. This is the first real look at what this offense is supposed to look like, and a needed road win.
Week 4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Loss)
Patrick Mahomes is back, and even a Chiefs team coming off a down year has too much for the Raiders. Kansas City wins 30-20 at Allegiant Stadium. Bowers is productive, and the Raiders hang around longer than they did in most division games last season. Crosby gets after the quarterback. It’s progress in the process, if not in the result.
Week 5 at New England Patriots (Loss)
In an early East Coast start, the Raiders move the ball in stretches against a trending-up Patriots team but stall near the goal line and lose 24-16. Jeanty’s dual-threat role is a bright spot, and young defenders get valuable snaps. Once again, the scheme looks cleaner even when the scoreboard does not.
Week 6 vs. Buffalo Bills (Loss)
Josh Allen and a good Bills roster come to Las Vegas, and Buffalo pulls away late to win 28-17. Special teams coverage is tighter than it was last year, and the offense finds rhythm when Bowers and Jeanty are both involved. You leave the game thinking the plan is sound.
Week 7 vs. Los Angeles Rams (Loss)
The well-coached, talented Rams win 27-17. Bowers remains the focal point of the passing game, and the defense under Rob Leonard shows better gap discipline. It’s still a loss, but not a collapse.
Week 8 at New York Jets (Win)
The Jets are in a similar rebuild, and this is a game Las Vegas should win, and does, 20-13. Cousins is efficient, Jeanty and Bowers carry the offense, and the secondary limits big plays. It’s a workmanlike road win that keeps the season from sliding.
Week 9 at San Francisco 49ers (Loss)
Against a strong 49ers defense, the Raiders struggle to protect Cousins at times and lose 26-14. Mendoza gets some mop-up reps, the run game still functions, and the defense continues to fight.
Week 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks (Loss)
Facing Kubiak’s old team, the Raiders find Seattle, coming off a championship, too complete. The Seahawks win 27-20 in a game that stays competitive. The offensive line and play-action look more like what Kubiak ran in Seattle: good tape in a loss.
Week 11 at Denver Broncos (Loss)
At Mile High against a loaded Broncos team, Denver wins 31-17. The Raiders’ front seven, led by Crosby, Kwity Paye and the new linebacker group, keeps the game from becoming a blowout, another reminder of how deep the division is.
Week 12 at Cleveland Browns (Win)
Fernando Mendoza’s regular-season debut: This is the game. After 11 weeks of Cousins, the staff turns the offense over to Mendoza in Cleveland. The Browns are also rebuilding. Mendoza is not perfect: he takes sacks, misses a couple of reads and shows the expected rookie moments. But he also makes throws Cousins does not have, and with help from Jeanty and a healthy Bowers, the Raiders win a messy 20-17 game. The debut is not a coronation; it is the first real look at the future, which is the point of the season.
Week 13: Bye
Time to reset, get healthy and give Mendoza more of the offense.
Week 14 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Loss)
Herbert and the Chargers are still the better team, winning 24-17 at Allegiant. Mendoza starts and shows growth from Cleveland, the offense finds more rhythm, and the defense generates pressure. It’s close, but not enough.
Week 15 vs. Denver Broncos (Loss)
Denver completes the season sweep, 27-20. Mendoza’s decision-making is cleaner, and the young offensive line continues to gel. You can see the foundation even in another division loss.
Week 16 vs. Tennessee Titans (Win)
At home against another bottom-tier roster, Mendoza and Jeanty control the game and Bowers is a mismatch. The Raiders win 24-13. The run game looks like a strength, special teams are clean, and it’s a professional win this young team needs.
Week 17 at Arizona Cardinals (Win)
In a road game against a struggling Cardinals team, Mendoza plays his most controlled game yet. Bowers and the tight end room feast in a 23-17 win. The offense is starting to look like something that can grow.
Week 18 at Kansas City Chiefs (Loss)
In the season finale at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs close it out, 28-16. Mendoza finishes with valuable starts under his belt, and the defense plays hard. The Raiders walk out of 2026 at 5-12.
Five wins is not what anyone wanted after the offseason additions. Losing Bowers for the first two weeks cost the Raiders the home opener and turned the Chargers game into a wipeout. That is the honest impact.
Still, the larger picture has not changed. Last year this team scored 241 points and looked lost. This year the offense has an identity: a featured back who should still push past 1,100 yards, a healthy Bowers for 15 games and a rookie quarterback who will get six or seven starts. The defense still has Crosby, and special teams should be average instead of a weekly problem.
Raider Nation, this is a rebuild. Temper your expectations. Five or six wins was always the realistic range; the Bowers news just pushed it toward the lower end. Support the front office and this coaching staff. They are laying the foundation, in scheme, culture and young pieces at the most important positions, for sustained success down the road. Judge them on whether the three phases look better in December than they did in September and on whether Mendoza is ready to take the job in 2027.
That is how you measure Year 1 of a real rebuild.
*Top Photo: Ramble Illustration/Getty Images