We are back on a short week for the Las Vegas Raiders for this Thanksgiving edition of Gamble Ramble. Hopefully, we can build off the momentum from last week’s bets. All lines are as of Tuesday afternoon via Draft Kings.
Smartest Bet: Raiders Moneyline (+270)
I understand that this bet feels like it probably belongs in the “risky bet” section. I almost put it there, but this is a good play. The Raiders have a few things going for them that make me think they might have a better-than-average shot at the upset. At +270, it’s worth a shot.
The first thing you have to remember here is that Thursday games are typically weird. They are hard to predict, and coaches have less time to gameplan. Also, players are on short rest. These things sometimes cause games to go drastically different from how you would expect them to play out on a typical Sunday.
Another thing to consider is that the Cowboys are far from a hundred percent. They will be without several big names. Not having CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper could hamper their offense. They are also missing key pieces on the defensive line, most importantly, Demarcus Lawrence.
Does all this mean that the Raiders are a lock to win? No.
However, it does give them a chance. I would say this game, like most Thursday games, is probably a coin-flip. That makes it a solid wager, given the odds.
Safest Bet: Ezekiel Elliot Over 64.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
This is Joe Mixon all over again. The Raiders have trouble with the run, especially late in games. The Vegas offense hangs the defense out to dry far too much. Teams have figured out that pounding the rock is the way to go. Like the Bengals, the Cowboys also have a top-notch bell-cow running back. The Raiders are not going to hold Elliot under 64.5 yards rushing. ‘Zeke’ averages 69.5 rushing yards per game. The Raiders give up over 132 yards on the ground per game. There is one area of concern with this bet. Elliot is dealing with some knee and ankle issues. That being said, I think that is already factored into the line. If it weren’t for the injuries, the line might be set north of 80 yards. The Cowboys running back is going to have a pretty big day.
Best Risk Bet: Zay Jones to Score (+450)
Betting on Zay Jones in any capacity might feel like setting money on fire. That is fair. Let me convince you. The Raiders do not have a lot of reliable receiving options. Since Week 9—the Raiders’ first week without Henry Ruggs III, Zay Jones has been Vegas’ second most targeted wide receiver. Not Bryan Edwards, or DeSean Jackson, or anyone else. It’s Zay Jones. He is becoming a significant part of the passing game. His finding the end zone is not crazy. At +450, it’s worth throwing a few bucks at it.
*Top Photo: AP Photo/David Becker