The Las Vegas Raiders are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. However, almost all eyes in Raider Nation are on the offseason hunt for a new head coach. This is not a new occurrence for the Silver and Black, as they’ve seen a total of nine different men helm the position since 2001 (with two stints from Jon Gruden). In some ways, the Raiders will hope Gruden can bookend a revolving door of head coaches for the franchise.
But which direction should the front office go when looking for a suitable name to be the rock needed to provide stability for one of the pillar organizations in the league? Let’s take a look at the last five years of coaching hires to dissect the trends and success rates of coaches in football.
As Of Now, There Are No Obvious “Big Fish”
Every now and then, a well-established and well-regarded name will hit the market looking for a new franchise to lead (ex. Andy Reid to the Chiefs). His results speak for themselves. While rumors have been prevalent around the name of Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, the odds of one of the most stable franchises ever deciding to cut ties with a Super Bowl winning coach because he’ll fail to take an injury-ridden and aging roster to ten wins is beyond extreme. Gruden was once a coveted “big fish” that was nearly secured by the Colts before the Raiders, uh, lucked out and reacquired his services in 2018.
Bruce Arians is a prime example of a name that retired before choosing a new destination down the line.
Dipping Into The College Pool
With very mixed results over the last five seasons, NFL franchises have turned to the college ranks to secure their top signal callers on a few occasions.
College Coaches Hired Since 2016
ARI – Kliff Kingsbury: 2019-2021 (23-22-1)
CAR – Matt Rhule: 2020-2021 (10-20)
JAX – *Urban Meyer: 2021-2021 (2-11)
*LOL
The Arizona Cardinals’ head coach, Kliff Kingsbury, would appear to be the most successful of a middling crop. College names are clearly more enamored with being courted than actually leaving the comfy confines of the collegiate ranks. Due to his relationship with current general manager Mike Mayock, Dabo Swinney has been heavily linked to the Raiders’ vacancy. If Mayock is wise, he’ll stick to over-drafting Clemson players as opposed to overpaying a Clemson coach.
Popular Names That Could Be Considered In 2022
Jim Harbaugh – MICH
Dabo Swinney – CLEM
We’ve already discussed Dabo, but in short, I think he would be a disaster. Jim Harbaugh is a far more intriguing option to consider. The former 49er head coach left the NFL after a nasty fallout with the San Francisco front office, but he did quickly turnaround the franchise and lead them to a Super Bowl berth. He’s also shown a willingness to adapt to the times as a signal caller, which is crucial for the next name the Raiders look to.
Don’t Re-Tread On Me
Some guys have all the luck. It seems like if you are ever fortunate enough to receive the opportunity to coach an NFL franchise, you’ll more than likely get another crack at it no matter how poorly your first stint went. Seven franchises in the last five seasons have decided to give previously fired names another chance. The results are hardly flattering.
Retread Coaches Hired Since 2016
CLE – Hue Jackson: 2016-2018 (3-36-1)
DAL – *Mike McCarthy: 2020-2021 (16-14)
JAX – Doug Marrone: 2016-2020 (23-43)
NYG – Pat Shurmur: 2018-2019 (9-23)
NYJ – Adam Gase: 2010-2020 (9-23)
SF – Chip Kelly: (2-14)
WFT – *Ron Rivera: 2020-2021 (13-17)
*Still employed by the same franchise.
Popular Names That Could Get Another Opportunity In 2022
Todd Bowles – TBÂ
Dennis Allen – NO
Doug Pederson – NA
As funny as it may seem to see former Raider coach Dennis Allen on this list, he’s come a long way since faltering in his premature stint with the Silver and Black. Of the available names, he would be the most attractive to the Raiders based on the work he’s done with the Saints’ defense.
John Witherspoon Candidates
Why John Witherspoon you say? Cause you’ve gotta Coordinate.
Hot coordinator names are usually the top names teams look to when the coaching carousel begins to spin. Over the last five years, we’ve seen ten different defensive playcallers get head coaching gigs. Six of them remain with the team that hired them, but only three have been around for multiple seasons (McDermott, Fangio, and Vrabel), and Vic Fangio’s seat has fluctuated between lukewarm and hot over the last calendar year.
Twelve offensive coordinators have been tasked with bringing teams new and innovative attacks, and a few have led those franchises to great heights. Doug Pederson won the Eagles’ first Super Bowl before being ousted shortly after. The 49ers were a quarter away from a championship of their own under Kyle Shanahan, and the Rams saw themselves in the title game not long after hiring Sean McVay.
If the Raiders will find their own version of this, or at the very least, a LaFleur or Reich type.
Coordinators Hired Since 2016
ARI – Steve Wilks DC: 2018-2018 (3-13)
ATL – Arthur Smith DC: 2021-2021* (6-8)
BUF – Sean McDermott DC: 2017-2021* (46-32)
CHI – Matt Nagy OC: 2018-2021* (32-30)
CIN – Zac Taylor QBC: 2019-2021* (14-31)
CLE – Freddie Kitchens OC: 2018-2018 (6-10), Kevin Stefanski OC: 2020-2021* (18-12)
DET – Matt Patricia DC: 2018-2020 (13-29), Dan Campbell DC: 2021-2021* (2-11)
DEN – Vance Joseph DC: 2017-2018 (11-21), Vic Fangio DC: 2019-2021* (19-27)Â
GB – Matt LaFleur OC: 2019-2021* (37-9)
HOU – David Culley AHC: 2021-2021* (3-11)
IND – Frank Reich OC: 2018-2021* (36-26)
LAC: Anthony Lynn OC: 2017-2020 (33-31), Brandon Staley DC: 2021-2021* (8-6)
LAR – Sean McVay OC: 2017-2021* (53-25)
NYG – Ben McAdoo OC: 2016-2017 (13-15), Joe Judge ST: 2020-2021* (10-20)
NYJ – Robert Selah DC: 2021-2021* (3-11)
PHI – Doug Pederson OC: 2016-2020 (42-37), Nick Sirianni OC: 2021-2021* (7-7)
SF: Kyle Shanahan OC: 2017-2021* (37-41)
TEN – Mike Vrabel DC: 2018-2021* (38-24)
Hot Coordinator Names to Consider in 2022
Eric Bieniemy OC – KC
Kellen Moore OC – DAL
Joe Lombardi OC – LAC
Matt Eberflus DC – IND
Josh McDaniels OC – NE
Joe Woods DC – CLE
Eric Bieniemy is a name a lot of Raider fans would love to see, but after watching Matt Nagy burn out in Chicago, I’m hesitant to trust another Reid disciple so quickly. Kellen Moore’s name seems to be cooling off with the recent struggles of the Dallas offense, but I think Joe Lombardi might be the hotter commodity when the time comes to start the interview process. The Colts defensive coordinator has as strong a case as anyone for a head coaching gig with the way the Indianapolis defense looks this year and would be a welcome addition in Las Vegas.
So What Does History Show Us?
From the looks of things, recent history suggests the Raiders would be better off hitching their wagon to a top offensive mind if they want to succeed sooner rather than later. They would also be wise to avoid the college ranks and retread names in their hunt for a head coach.
Will owner Mark Davis be content without the marquee name? Did the Dennis Allen hire scare him away from unseasoned options? Learning from the past five years could very well decide the next decade for Las Vegas. Bringing in the right guy could salvage the talent remaining on this roster and push it into the playoffs, where anyone can get hot and win it all. Hiring the wrong person could send the team into a rock bottom plunge that could take a decade to recover from.
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*Top Photo: Justin Edmonds/Getty Images