December 24th, 2016.
The Las Vegas Raiders were steamrolling the NFL with a potent offense and an opportunistic defense. Derek Carr was playing lights-out heading into a showdown with the Indianapolis Colts, a tune-up for the inevitable playoff run that came ahead.
Raider Nation doesn’t need a reminder of that day. Or the five long years that followed, watching the Raiders flounder and rebuild, culminating in a crucial 2021 season. Carr has never looked the same since that day, but he has a chance to write a new chapter this Sunday. The Raiders will play the Colts, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. If the Raiders win their last two games, the Silver and Black are back in the postseason and Carr gets his moment to shine.
To do it, Carr will have to play the best game he has played all season. To do it, the Raiders’ offense will need to break the stagnation that has plagued them since Jon Gruden’s departure.
Raiders’ offensive woes
The Raiders offense has not been playoff-caliber since their bye week. In the games following their 5-2 start, the Raiders have scored: 16, 14, 13, 36, 15, 9, 16, and 17 points. That’s a pitiful average of 17 points per game. They have gone 3-5 in that stretch. The offense, and namely Carr, shoulders the blame for the late-season collapse. Despite everything that has gone sideways in 2021, the Raiders still have a chance to make the playoffs. In fact, they control their own destiny.
17 points is not going to get it done against Frank Reich, Matt Eberflus, and the Colts. Jonathan Taylor is having an MVP season, Carson Wentz (pending COVID protocols) is still dangerous in the offense, and their defense knows how to get after the quarterback.
This is a balanced team, balanced but beatable. If the Raiders have any hope of making the playoffs, it will begin and end with Carr at quarterback. Not the running game, not defensive consistency, not kicking.
#Raiders are 22-15 with Derek Carr at QB when allowing 20 points or fewer. The .595 win % in those games is worst of 47 QBs w/ more than 10 starts when team allowed 20 or fewer since 2014. Rest of NFL has .791 win % in those scenarios
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) December 6, 2021
Quarterbacks make the NFL world go ’round. Whether fans like to admit it, the playoff field features the best quarterbacks more than anything. A stingy defense might drag a paltry passer from time to time, but there’s a reason why guys like Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers are consistently in contention.
It’s almost poetic that Carr will get an opportunity to prove himself in the playoffs by beating the Colts in December. To do it, he will need to do two things.
Cut down turnovers
Carr has a turnover problem this year. While he has struggled in the past with fumbles, he has been catastrophic with the football in his hands this season.
“4” has fumbled the ball 12 times, losing five of them to the defense. He has also thrown 12 interceptions and 20 touchdowns. Of the 24 times he has lost the ball, 17 of them gave up critical field position.
This is not playoff football
The interceptions are uncharacteristic for the normally conservative Carr, but the fumbles have been a blemish throughout his entire career. He lost the ball twice against the Broncos, who failed to make the Raiders pay.
The Colts will make them pay for their careless habits, and so will any team they come across should they make the postseason. The next two games will test Carr’s mettle. Matt Eberflus is going to throw everything he can at Carr to daze him. It’s up to him to take care of the ball and lead the team into January.
Lead the offense to touchdowns…
It’s not enough to just be careful with the ball. The Raiders have to put the ball into the endzone. More specifically, Carr has to throw touchdowns.
Carr has thrown a modest 20 touchdowns so far in 2021. That’s good for 13th in the league and has the same number of passing touchdowns as Taylor Heinicke. Mac Jones and Teddy Bridgewater have each managed to throw for 18 touchdowns.
This is not the company of quarterbacks that instills confidence in leading to a playoff berth. It is simply not good enough. Granted, missing Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs III deflated the offense, but the playoffs don’t let you in just because you produce a list of excuses.
A franchise quarterback has to be able to put the team on his back when it counts. He is a great leader off the field, but he needs to match that on the field this weekend. He still has Hunter Renfrow who is approaching Raider records held by Tim Brown and Jerry Rice.
Three will be the magic number.
All year long, Carr has not thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game all year long. The 2016 campaign saw Carr post four-touchdown games on more than one occasion. If the Raiders have plans to make the playoffs, they will need their leader, their field general, to take the reins and assert a new level of excellence.
Take care of business, and Raiders vs. Colts may take on a whole new meaning for Derek Carr and Raider fans starting in 2021.
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*Top Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images