Time for another week of Gamble Ramble! Last week, we made the silly mistake of betting Thursday Night Football as if it were a legitimate NFL game. Now that we are back to a normal schedule, we can try to win back what we lost. Here are three bets we like this week as the Las Vegas Raiders take on the New England Patriots. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Saturday morning.
Best Bet: Raiders -1.5 (-105)
Betting the Raiders to beat anybody right now feels scary, but there is some logic here. First of all, the Raiders are playing some really good football. Personally, I’m ignoring the Thursday night game, as those exist in their own separate Twilight Zone-style universe. Throw that out, and it still seems like the Raiders are heading in the right direction. The Patriots, meanwhile, are falling apart at the seams. Their offense seems to be all out of sorts right now, meaning the Raiders might be able to win this one if they can just break 20.
Another factor to consider is Bill Belichick’s shockingly bad record against his former assistants and players. In those matchups, he has a .486 winning percentage. While that doesn’t seem too bad on the surface, it looks a lot worse when it is compared to his overall winning percentage of .669. All signs point to the Raiders winning this one. They are only laying 1.5, so you might as well go for it.
Safest Bet: Josh Jacobs to Score a Touchdown (-160)
This is an easy one. Jacobs has been on a tear all season. The guy appears to be on a quest to become the highest-paid running back in the entire league this offseason. If he keeps putting up gaudy numbers, it just might happen.
The value on this is low because it is virtually a lock. Jacobs has been the Raiders’ most reliable scorer in the red zone all season, and he has home run capabilities as well. He is virtually the team’s only back at this point. So, if the Raiders do run it in, it will almost certainly be with Jacobs. It’s a little free money by itself or a safe addition to a parlay.
Best Risky Bet: Josh Jacobs 100+ Rush Yards and Davante Adams 100+ Receiving Yards (+310)
I love this Weekly Special from Draft Kings. Jacobs and Adams are essentially the Raiders’ entire offense right now. The former has eclipsed the century mark in three of his last five games (he also ran for 99 last week against the Rams). The latter has done so as well.
If the Raiders are going to win this week, it will likely be on the shoulders of these two players. Even against a stout New England defense, they both will get a high enough volume of touches to put up solid numbers. At +310, the value here is tremendous. Individually, Jacobs is sitting at +150 to break 100 yards, and Adams is at +110. Combining them gives you an extra +150. You have to take it.
*Top Photo: The Herald Bulletin