Football is officially back folks, and so is Gamble Ramble! Unfortunately, there won’t be any Raiders regular-season games to bet on for a few more weeks. But let’s be honest with ourselves. It can be hard to look at yourself in the mirror after betting on a preseason game.
Luckily, futures bets are a great way to satisfy that itch without feeling like a total degenerate (no offense to anyone who actually bets preseason football). Let’s parse out which season-long bets you should hammer — and which ones you should avoid.
All lines come via Draft Kings as of Sunday, August 13.
Raiders to Make the Playoffs: Yes (+380)/No (-475)
Let’s be realistic about where the Raiders currently are. The team won only six games in 2022, but the roster seems to be improved. Obviously, that statement comes with a Josh Jacobs-sized caveat. For now, we will assume he will eventually show up.
While this roster should be better than last year’s, Raider Nation would be wise to temper expectations. The defense still has a long way to go, an offense quarterbacked by Jimmy Garoppolo can only do so much, and the AFC West (and the AFC in general) is loaded. The ceiling for this team is probably ten wins. On the flip side, the floor is probably a repeat of the six-win campaign.
A 10-win season would certainly give the Raiders a decent shot at the playoffs. Even nine would give them an outside chance. Regardless, there is a legitimate chance that the Raiders could miss the playoffs even if they hit their ceiling. The odds aren’t juicy enough on either side to make this bet very enticing.
Verdict: Hate both sides.
Over (+110)/Under (-130) 6.5 Wins
These odds are shocking, given the team’s floor and ceiling mentioned above. It is hard to imagine a world where the Raiders suffer a major setback relative to 2022. The only scenario in which this is possible is if Jacobs does not play for the Silver and Black this year. Even then, it would take a team-wide regression of epic proportions to fall short of seven wins.
The under is also in play if Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler decide to rebuild and actively tank the season. While a rebuild could be underway, there doesn’t seem to be an appetite for a “the process” level tank job.
The over (+110) has some solid value, but the payoff on the under (-130) flat-out sucks. It would take a disaster of a season for it to hit, and even then, the potential reward is pretty low.
Verdict: Love the over. Hate the under.
Jimmy Garoppolo Over (-110)/Under (-110) 3300.5 Passing Yards
This section is the easiest one yet. It just comes down to math. In 57 career regular season starts, Garoppolo has averaged just over 244 passing yards per game. Over a full NFL season, that would be north of 4,100 yards. So, hammer the over, right? To quote the legendary Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend!”
Those numbers only tell half the story. We also have to take into account Garoppolo’s injury history. Since his first year as the full-time starter for San Francisco in 2018, he has missed an average of six games per season. Even if Jimmy G only misses five games this year, it would be difficult to break 3,000 yards passing, let alone 3,300.
Health is not the only threat to Garoppolo’s playing time. Rookie Aidan O’Connell is lurking behind the veteran. So far, the former Purdue quarterback seems to be putting together an impressive camp. If Garoppolo gets hurt or doesn’t play well, ‘AOC’ could take the job and never look back.
At any rate, the real bet here is whether or not Jimmy G will play at least 14 games. That feels very unlikely.
Verdict: Love the under. Hate the over.
Davante Adams to Have 1500+ Receiving Yards (+200)
This one is a bit trickier to predict. Adams has hit this milestone in each of the last two seasons. We know he has it in him. However, those are the only two seasons he has achieved the lofty total. Also, the margins were tight in both of those years.
As far as this year goes, Adams has some things working for and against him. The possible absence of Jacobs could cause the Raiders to lean more heavily on the passing game. On the other hand, Adams is unlikely to receive as many force-fed targets with Garoppolo as he did with his buddy Derek Carr.
Even if we assume that Adams will be able to catch at least 100 passes again this season, the odds of him breaking 1,500 yards are probably 50/50. At only +200 odds, the value is just not there.
Verdict: Hate it.
Maxx Crosby Over (+120)/Under (-140) 11.75 Sacks
Crosby is coming off his best season yet. He put up career highs in nearly every statistical category, including sacks, of which he had 12.5. Now we have to see if he can do it again.
All signs point to Crosby being just as good or better in 2023. His play has been trending upward throughout his career. Also, he should benefit from an improved secondary.
Finally, either a bounce-back season from Chandler Jones or the emergence of rookie Tyree Wilson could give him some help on the opposite side. This sack total feels like the minimum to expect from Crosby in Year 5.
From a betting perspective, the over is the only viable option. At +120, the value is good but not great. The fact that this should be a near-lock helps a lot, though.
Verdict: I love the over. And hate the under with a passion.
*Top Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images