Man, if you are still reading this, you truly have a problem. We continue to be down while betting on the Las Vegas Raiders this year. Last week, we hit on just one pick and lost another 1.08 units. On the year, we are now three for 12 and down 5.70 units on the year. Will it get better as the Green Bay Packers come to town in Week 5?
Betting on Raiders games this year has been just about as fun as watching them. However, there are some trends that we can possibly take advantage of this week to help get back on track. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Sunday morning. Let’s get into the picks for this week, starting with the best value bet of the week.
Best Value: Packers WR Romeo Doubs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)
We are going to come right out of the gate betting against the Raiders. The value here is just too good to ignore. The Raiders have allowed six receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this year, tied for most in the NFL. There is a good chance that at least one, if not two, touchdowns will be scored by Green Bay receivers on Monday night.
Romeo Doubs leads the Packers with three receiving touchdowns on the year, which makes up almost half of the team’s total of eight. It is also worth noting that Doubs’ target share has been way up over the last two weeks. Quarterback Jordan Love has looked his way 25 times in that span. Keep in mind that spike occurred after Christian Watson returned from injury. Doubs has carved out a consistent leading role in the Green Bay offense.
Between Doubs’ offensive volume and the Raiders’ penchant for giving up touchdowns to wide receivers, this pick feels pretty safe. If the odds were lower, this would be a good candidate for lock of the week. Instead, we have an opportunity for an over 200 percent return on investment. You can’t beat that value, especially with the laws of probability in our favor. Speaking of high probability, let’s move on to the lock of the week.
Lock of the Week: Under 45 (-110)
We are going back to the ‘under’ well once again. Why not? We know that the Raiders probably won’t even get to 20 points themselves. They are only averaging just over 15 points per game. Also, it helps that they are actually playing pretty well defensively as of late. That unit is only giving up just over 25 points per game, and that number is inflated a bit by the 38-10 Week 2 drubbing in Buffalo. That Bills game was also the only Raiders game this year to go over 45 total points.
Don’t expect the Packers to help break this trend, either. They have been average on both sides of the ball in terms of scoring. Their defense is solid, and their offense is steady, but there is not the same scoring threat that existed in the Aaron Rodgers-era.
Expect this game to be a race to 20. Even a high-scoring affair in this matchup would only be something like 24-20; even that seems unlikely. If you are looking to boost your odds, I actually like the under into the low-40s. On Draft Kings, if you set the total to 41.5, the under pays out at +146, which is a really solid value. If you want to just play it safe, -110 is not terrible for an ironclad lock. Let’s wrap things up with something a little less certain.
Long-shot of the Week: Raiders WR DeAndre Carter Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+900)
This one is mostly just for fun, but there is a legitimate rationale. First of all, there really isn’t anything that looks all that great in that +300-600 range. That is usually the sweet spot, but nothing there stands out as having a higher likelihood than the odds suggest. With that in mind, we might as well swing for the fences. Nevertheless, this pick isn’t as improbable as you would think.
One thing to keep an eye on here is the injury status of Davante Adams. Even if Adams does play, he could be limited, especially on those down-field throws where he has a bigger chance of getting rocked. Those opportunities could go to the speedy Carter. Nonetheless, if Carter does find the end zone, it will probably be on special teams. He has looked great in the return game, and it feels like he is going to break one any week now. Also, it’s worth noting that the Packers have already given up a punt return touchdown this year to Rashid Shaheed of the Saints.
If the Raiders are ever going to get out of this scoring rut, they will need someone outside of the usual suspects to make a big play. Carter is one of Las Vegas’ most explosive players. If anyone is going to make something happen, he is a great candidate. At +900, it is worth a flier.
*Top Photo: Sam Morris/Getty Images