Welcome back for this week’s edition of Gamble Ramble! Any gambling momentum we had going was stopped dead in its tracks last week in Chicago. We missed on all three picks and lost three units. The Raiders couldn’t force more than one Cairo Santos field goal attempt, and then they blew the under with a garbage-time touchdown. That leaves us at 6-15 and down 8.35 units on the year. It is probably time to just start fading these picks.
Whether you are trailing these picks, or doing the exact opposite, all lines come via Draft Kings as of Monday morning. Let’s get into this week’s picks, starting with our best value pick of the week.
Best Value: Jakobi Meyers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+235)
We have gone to this pick a lot, but with good reason. Meyers has scored five touchdowns in six games played this year. He has scored at least one touchdown in four out of those six games. Nonetheless, he continues to get generous odds.
I get the idea that Meyers’ touchdowns are not sustainable. However, we have a pretty good sample size at this point. We are almost halfway through the season and Meyers is still scoring in two-thirds of his games. Also, it isn’t like Meyers is only getting targeted once or twice a game and just happening to be in the endzone. He is a massive part of the Raiders’ passing game, garnering roughly a quarter of the team’s targets.
Meyers has scored five of the Raiders’ 11 total touchdowns this season. As long as the Raiders score at least two touchdowns this week, Meyers is essentially a lock to be responsible for one of them. This is one of the safest bets you can make on this game. At +215, the return on investment makes this pick way too good to pass up.
Lock of the Week: Lions -7.5 (-105)
Sorry, folks, but we have to bet against the Raiders this week. After seeing the Raiders last week against Chicago, it is time to start worrying about things going downhill fast. It doesn’t help that they are facing a much tougher opponent this week in Detroit.
The Lions are 5-2 this season and playing like one of the best teams in the NFL. Yes, they were blown out last week by Baltimore, but that seems more like a fluke than the start of a trend of poor play. Also, it is worth noting that the Ravens are a far better team than the Bears team that just waxed the Raiders.
Las Vegas has not shown that they have the capacity to keep up with a team like Detroit. The Raiders offense has still not put up more than 19 points in a game all year. That won’t be enough against a Lions team that averages about 25 points per game. This has all the makings of a double-digit Raiders loss. I’m predicting a 27-17 final score that looks a lot closer than it really is.
Long-Shot of the Week: Jakobi Meyers First Touchdown Scorer (+1600)
Let’s double-down on Meyers this week. We already talked about the high likelihood of him scoring this week. The chances of him scoring the first touchdown of the game aren’t bad either, despite the long odds.
While the Raiders haven’t scored a ton of points this year and have been average defensively, they have started games very well. Las Vegas has put up the first touchdown in five of their seven games. To be fair, so have the Lions. However, their players aren’t getting the same betting value to score first.
Let’s say it is a toss-up who scores first. You have a 50 percent chance of the Raiders getting the first touchdown. From there, the data indicates that there is about a fifty percent chance that Meyers scores that touchdown. Therefore, we can estimate that the chances of Meyers scoring the game’s opening touchdown are about one in four. At a 1,500 percent return on investment, we will take those odds every time.
*Top Photo: AP Photo/Jack Dempsey
