With the NFL regular season over, it is officially draft season. In the AFC West, two teams are already in offseason mode, while the other two are still playing. Either way, it is never too early to start mapping needs and fits for April.
This is our first division mock of the year, so the board is fluid and the unknowns are obvious. Still, an early run through the scenarios helps frame where the AFC West could be headed.
For this mock, we used the Draft Professor mock draft simulator. Let’s get started.
Pick No. 1: The Las Vegas Raiders select…
Fernando Mendoza, Quarterback, Indiana
This one already feels close to inevitable. The Raiders need a franchise quarterback, and Fernando Mendoza is the best option in this draft class. There will be debate about whether he is worth the top pick, but this is a spot where Las Vegas cannot afford to overthink it.
Mendoza looks the part of an NFL quarterback. In a stronger quarterback year, he might project closer to the top five or top 10 than No. 1 overall. This is not that kind of year, and the Raiders’ need is too clear to ignore.
Pick No. 9: The Kansas City Chiefs select…
Caleb Downs, Safety, Ohio State
In this mock, the simulator had Carnell Tate and Jeremiyah Love off the board, and Utah tackle Spencer Fano was gone as well. With those options unavailable, the Kansas City Chiefs can pivot to the best player available and add a potentially transformative piece on defense.
Safety may not be the Chiefs’ biggest need, but Downs is versatile enough to justify the pick. He can fill multiple roles, and Kansas City would have no trouble finding ways to deploy him.
No matter how the board falls, the Chiefs are positioned to improve with the ninth pick.
Pick No. 22: The Los Angeles Chargers select…
Vega Ioane, Guard, Penn State
The Los Angeles Chargers’ draft position has been solidified at No. 22 due to their early playoff exit. The reason is clear: they have not protected Justin Herbert well enough to survive in the playoffs. Injuries at both tackle spots have been part of the story, but they also exposed lingering problems on the interior.
That is where Ioane fits. He is big, powerful and physical, and the profile reads like a classic “Jim Harbaugh guy” from a Big Ten program. The Chargers could go wide receiver here, but investing in the line better matches how they want to play—and what Herbert needs most.
Pick No. 31: The Denver Broncos select…
Elijah Sarratt, Wide Receiver, Indiana
The Denver Broncos are drafting at the end of the first round after finishing as the AFC’s top seed. Their best-case scenario is simple: one of the class’ top pass catchers falls to them.
For the second year in a row, Denver enters the draft needing to put more help around Bo Nix. Sarratt would fit as a WR1A alongside Courtland Sutton, and his route running aligns well with Sean Payton’s offense. In this simulation, he slipped to No. 31. In reality, he may be gone before then. If that is how the board breaks, Denver may be better served trading down a few spots and targeting the same tier of receiver.
*Top Photo: Getty Images