With the big day finally here, we have about as much information as we are going to get, which means it is time for one final AFC West mock draft. Unlike previous mocks, this one is grounded in what we actually expect these teams to do. All 64 first-round picks were simulated through Draft Professor to shape each selection, with one caveat: no trades were factored in. With that, let’s get started.
Pick No. 1: The Raiders select Fernando Mendoza, Quarterback, Indiana
This pick has been set in stone since the moment Las Vegas clinched the first overall selection. New head coach Klint Kubiak gets his quarterback of the future, and the Raiders kick off the draft by securing their franchise centerpiece. The rest of their selections will now focus on building around him.
Debate about the ceiling and whether it meets the typical standard of a No. 1 pick could go on indefinitely, but none of that matters much in the end. Mendoza projects, at worst, as a quality starting quarterback in the NFL with the tools to potentially do much more. Players like that are hard to come by.
Picks 2-8
Pick No. 9: The Chiefs select Carnell Tate, Wide Receiver, Ohio State
After a run of mostly defensive players, Kansas City has the good fortune of seeing the best wide receiver in the draft fall right into its lap. It makes sense for other teams to wait on a wideout given how deep this class is, but Carnell Tate is too talented and fills too great a need for the Chiefs to pass on him. For Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, this is a dream scenario. For the rest of the division, it is nightmare fuel.
Tate simply oozes talent, demonstrating a natural affinity for the position that shows up most clearly in his route running and at the catch point. His physical tools are solid, if not elite, which may limit his ceiling somewhat and could explain any slide down draft boards. Even so, Tate projects as a reliable and productive receiver for years to come.
Picks 10-21
Pick No. 22: The Chargers select Kayden McDonald, Defensive Tackle, Ohio State
The Chargers will likely look to use their first pick to add talent to the front seven or beef up the interior of the offensive line. Unfortunately, so will everyone else picking ahead of them. Both Clemson defenders Peter Woods and T.J. Parker would be ideal options, but neither is likely to be available at No. 22. As a result, Los Angeles may need to settle for the second-best defensive tackle on the board.
It could be worse, though. McDonald is a stalwart interior defender who can line up at a variety of spots for the Chargers. He is agile enough to play 3-technique and stout enough to serve as a true nose tackle. That combination of nastiness and hard-nosed play fits squarely into the mold Jim Harbaugh tends to favor.
With the Broncos having traded their first-round pick to Miami for Jaylen Waddle, the focus shifts to the second round.
Picks 23-35
Pick No. 36: The Raiders select Lee Hunter, Defensive Tackle, Texas Tech
The Raiders’ draft really begins at pick No. 36. Las Vegas opens the process of building around Mendoza by addressing the trenches on defense, and the need there is urgent.
Last season, this unit could not get off the field. The Raiders ranked among the league’s worst in third-down defense, largely because they struggled to stop the run in critical situations and could not generate consistent pressure on the quarterback. Maxx Crosby can only do so much coming off the edge. Finding someone more disruptive up the middle is not optional; it is imperative.
The decision here comes down to Lee Hunter and Florida’s Caleb Banks. Ultimately, the Raiders go with Hunter due to Banks’ injury concerns, and the choice makes sense beyond just availability. Hunter offers a bit more upside as a pass rusher, pairing violent power with a lightning-quick first step to generate consistent penetration and wreak havoc in opposing backfields. He would likely step into the starting lineup immediately and give Las Vegas something it has been missing up front for years.
Picks 37-39
Pick No. 40: The Chiefs select Cashius Howell, EDGE, Texas A&M
After securing a wide receiver on Day 1, the Chiefs can shift their focus to the defensive side of the ball, where the roster could use a talent infusion. Kansas City plays well as a unit, but the team needs more playmakers, and that is a problem complicated by the fact that most of the prospects who fit that description will likely be gone by the 40th pick.
That is where Cashius Howell comes in as a creative solution. His smaller frame could be a liability at the point of attack against the run, but his explosiveness is something Kansas City simply does not have right now. Howell can be moved around and deployed in a variety of ways to become a major disruptor for a unit that needs to generate more negative plays. Sometimes the best fit is not the most obvious one.
Picks 41-54
Pick No. 55: The Chargers select Emmanuel Pregnon, Guard, Oregon
Last year’s struggles make one thing clear: the Chargers need offensive line help, particularly at guard. The problem is that Los Angeles does not pick early enough in the first round to justify the value on anyone below Penn State’s Vega Ioane, and by the time they pick again, the next tier of guards could already be off the board.
With that in mind, settling for Emmanuel Pregnon is not the worst outcome in the world.
He is not an easy player to get excited about. Pregnon is a sixth-year senior with very little mobility, and that is a legitimate limitation. But when you watch the tape, the results speak for themselves. He is a nasty finisher who buries defenders on a consistent basis, and that kind of physicality fits exactly what Jim Harbaugh wants up front. The Chargers get another classic Harbaugh guy, and there is nothing wrong with that.
Picks 56-61
Pick No. 62: The Broncos select Max Klare, Tight End
Denver must continue dedicating resources to helping Bo Nix, and this pick does exactly that. The Broncos currently have some interesting pieces at tight end, but they lack someone who can handle all of the traditional responsibilities the position demands.
Klare lacks the technical polish of some prospects, but he understands his role well enough to rely on his physical tools to get by. He can also serve as a reliable safety net in the passing game, giving Denver exactly the kind of low-risk, high-utility addition it needs at this stage of its rebuild.
That last point is worth emphasizing. No matter how good the defense plays, leaving Nix to carry the offense on his own is not a sustainable model. Adding players like Klare and Waddle, guys who can create after the catch and take pressure off the quarterback, gives the Broncos the offensive support they need to take the next step.
More AFC West coverage
- The Raiders have fully embraced the youth movement
- Fernando Mendoza is headed to the NFL’s toughest division
- The rest of the AFC West isn’t waiting for the Silver and Black
*Top Photo: Ramble Illustration/Getty Images