Welcome, Raider Nation; it’s time for this week’s Gamble Ramble. Let’s not sugarcoat it – we are down bad when it comes to the Las Vegas Raiders. Last week, we went one-for-three once again, which takes us to 4-11 on the year. We also dropped another 1.08 units, putting us a dreadful 6.78 units in the hole for the year. Maybe just take these picks and do the opposite, with the exception of our lock of the week.
As always, all lines come via Draft Kings as of Saturday morning. Let’s get into this week’s picks, starting with the best value pick of the week.
Best Value: Jakobi Meyers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
This is possibly a revenge game for Meyers, who spent his first four years with New England, but was not re-signed this past offseason. He could have a little extra juice for this game, and that is saying something considering how well he has played this year.
The Raiders receiver has already found the endzone three times in four games this year. All of which have come in the three games that he has played with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The latter only seems to have eyes for Meyers and Davante Adams, especially in the red zone.
Probability says that Meyers, who has scored just under half of the team’s touchdowns in games that he played in this year, is extremely likely to score. Much more than the +155 odds would suggest. The value here is quite generous.
Lock of the Week: Under 42 (-112)
After giving up 34 points to Derek Carr and the Saints last week, the Patriots are now one of just two teams in the NFL that have yet to score more than 20 points in a game this year. Who else remains in this sad little club? You guessed it; the Las Vegas Raiders.
Both of these offenses have struggled to move the ball this year. A big reason for that has been sub-par quarterback play. Garoppolo and Mac Jones are among the league’s leaders in interceptions thrown this year. The pair have combined for a dismal 13 picks this season. That total is even more astounding when you consider the fact Garoppolo has only played in four games this year and Jones has attempted 15 passes or less in three of his five outings.
This game is going to be painful to watch. The funny thing is that both teams could hit season-highs in points scored in this game, and the total could still be under 42 points. It probably won’t come to that though. The final score will probably be something like 17-13. Hammer the under.
Long-shot of the Week: Michael Mayer Anytime Touchdown Scorer in Raiders vs Pats (+550)
Could this be the week in which we finally see Garoppolo throw a touchdown pass to someone not named Meyers or Adams? It will probably have to happen for the Raiders to have a shot at winning this one. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is known for taking away his opponents’ best players. Stopping Adams will be his top priority. To beat the Patriots, you have to get contributions from your tertiary offensive weapons.
Mayer is the perfect candidate to make such a contribution. He is coming off of his best game yet in which he caught two of his three targets for 39 yards. The Raiders seem ready to let him loose. This could be the perfect opportunity for the rookie tight end to have a breakout game.
If someone outside of the usual suspects is going to score this week, it will likely be Mayer. Last week, he was the fourth most-targeted Raider behind Adams, Meyers, and Josh Jacobs. He has the best chance to join in on the scoring and has some of the better value as well at +550. It might be worth a look.
*Top Photo: Rick Scuteri/Associated Press
