Gamble Ramble is back again this week with some newfound confidence. Last week, we hit on two out of three picks and were very close to going perfect. Unfortunately, Las Vegas Raiders rookie tight end, Michael Mayer, did everything but score in his breakout performance. Our record is slightly more respectable at 6-12 on the year. In terms of units, we made back 1.43 last week, but we are still down 5.35 on the year.
We need some more great picks in Week 7, as it likely will be an ugly matchup all around. It appears we are headed toward a quarterback duel between Brian Hoyer and Tyson Bagent. Yuck. Hopefully, it will at least be profitable. As usual, all lines come via Draft Kings as of Saturday morning. Let’s get into the picks, starting with our best value pick of the week.
Best Value: Cairo Santos Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+130)
Get ready for a good old-fashioned kicking duel. The Bears’ offense was already inept with Justin Fields at the helm. It can only get worse with the unheralded rookie Bagent in his place. Finding the endzone will prove difficult against a Raiders defense that has played surprisingly well as of late.
While that unit has improved, Las Vegas continues allowing teams to move the ball. Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham’s soft coverage should allow for some extra field goal opportunities. The Raiders have allowed two field goals or more in half of their games in 2023.
It also helps that Santos is 10 for 10 on field goals this year for Chicago. He has hit at least two in half of his games so far. The Bears kicker should get plenty of opportunities this week in what figures to be a low-scoring affair. Getting plus odds is phenomenal value for what should be a near-lock. Speaking of locks…
Lock of the Week: Under 37.5 Total Points (-110)
The oddsmakers are determined to buck the trend of unders hitting in Raiders games this season. After four consecutive games have gone under the pre-determined total, this week’s line is set at a measly 37.5 points. Somehow, this still feels way too high.
The Bears are going to struggle to score this week. Plain and simple. Maxx Crosby is the worst nightmare for a rookie quarterback making his first career start. Chicago will be lucky to get to 13 points, which means the Raiders would have to score more than 24 points for the over to hit. Keep in mind, this is a team that just hit a season-high of 21 points last week, and two of them came directly from the defense. Also, 13 of the Raiders’ 19 offensive points came in the first half before Jimmy Garoppolo went down.
There is no way that the Raiders can carry this total to 38 points or more. Even if they get some defensive points (more on that later), it won’t be enough. Keep hammering the under until this streak ends.
Long-shot of the Week: Raiders’ Defense/Special Teams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+800)
This is the week in which we hit the big one! The Raiders are going to have a hard time consistently moving the football on offense. If the Silver and Black want to win this game, they will likely need points from outside sources.
The defense is the best candidate to make that happen. They have been growing more and more productive as of late. Over the last two weeks, the Raiders have generated four interceptions and a safety. In Week 7, they have a very green quarterback to prey upon. The turnovers will likely continue to pile up.
Even if that doesn’t happen, this bet could still hit with the help of the special team’s unit. DeAndre Carter has been a home-run threat in the return game all year. It is only a matter of time before he breaks one off. Either way, the chances of the defense or special teams’ unit making a big play this week are high enough to warrant pursuing this excellent value at +800.
*Top Photo: Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images