Welcome back for this week’s edition of Gamble Ramble! We had another rough outing on Monday Night, going 1-2 once again. The only pick we hit on was the Lions covering 7.5 points. We are now 7-17 on the year. We also lost another 1.05 units, leaving us down 9.4 on the year. Betting on the Las Vegas Raiders has never been more difficult.
That being said, we get a fresh start this week. The Raiders cleaned house this past week, firing several members of the front office and coaching staff, including Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels. The news brings hope that things can turn around for the Raiders and our picks.
As usual, all lines come via Draft Kings as of Saturday morning. Let’s get going with this week’s picks, starting with our best value pick of the week.
Best Value: Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+160)
Adams has had some trouble scoring as of late, but that hasn’t been his fault. As we saw on Monday Night, he is still cooking opposing defenders. The Raiders simply need to get the ball to him. The Raiders have made two big changes on the offensive side of the ball this week: Aidan O’Connell is replacing Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and Bo Hardegree is taking over as the team’s offensive coordinator.
These changes should work in Adams’ favor. Expect the inexperienced quarterback and play-caller to rely heavily on their best weapons this week. Adams should get a ton of targets, especially in the red zone. Also, having a quarterback that can actually throw down the field should provide him even more opportunities to score.
Adams has only scored three touchdowns so far this year, putting him on pace for about six this year. That would be his lowest total since 2019, when he only played 12 games. His touchdown numbers are bound to start going up. Also, it’s worth noting that Adams was targeted 13 times in O’Connell’s lone start this year against the Chargers. He is a great pick to score this week at +160.
Lock of the Week: Saquon Barkley Over 75.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
This may feel like a bet against the Raiders, but it doesn’t mean much as far as the outcome goes. The Raiders could easily give up 80 or more yards on the ground to Barkley this week and still win this game. It doesn’t change the fact that this is a very safe pick.
Despite playing well this year, Las Vegas’ defense has struggled against the run. They are allowing over 140 yards rushing per game, which is third-worst in the NFL. It won’t get any easier this week, as the Raiders’ linebacker corps is utterly depleted. Of their top three linebackers, Divine Deablo and Luke Masterson have both been ruled out, and Robert Spillane is listed as questionable. That could leave Amari Burney and Curtis Bolton tasked with stopping one of the league’s best running backs.
It isn’t like Barkley needs the extra help either. He is already averaging over 82 yards rushing per game this year. Breaking 75 this week should be no sweat. While that number is a great lock, you could play around with some alternative lines as well. Taking Barkley to break 100 yards this week has some terrific value at +205.
Long-Shot of the Week: Final Score: Raiders 17 – Giants 13 (+6000)
This is the kind of pick that can erase our debt in one fell swoop. As the long odds suggest, getting this one to hit will be tough. Picking the correct score for one team is hard enough, but picking both? That is a tall order. That being said, this pick isn’t nearly as ridiculous as the odds suggest.
Keep in mind, the Raiders have already scored exactly 17 points three times this year. Also, one of their three wins had a 17-13 scoreline. On the other side of things, the Giants are averaging about 12 points per game. What is the closest number to 12 that we typically see in NFL scores? You guessed it, 13. If the Raiders win this game, chances are that it will be a 17-13 final score.
That may seem like a big if for a team that has looked rough the past two weeks and just fired their head coach. However, the Giants have looked just as bad as the Raiders, if not worse. Also, the firing of McDaniels seems to have brought some juice back to the Las Vegas locker room.
Is this pick super likely to hit? Probably not. Nevertheless, there are plenty of reasons to like it. The biggest one, of course, is that insane return on investment at +6000. Might as well give it a shot.
*Top Photo: Heidi Fang/Las Vegas Review-Journal
