Schedules are out. OTAs are underway. And yes, we’re already doing this.
Call it reckless and irresponsible, and call it exactly what every NFL fan is doing right now at their desk pretending to work.
We’re breaking down every AFC West schedule and handing out best- and worst-case scenarios for all four teams before a single regular-season snap has been played. The Las Vegas Raiders. The Kansas City Chiefs. The Los Angeles Chargers. The Denver Broncos. Nobody is safe, nothing is guaranteed, and half of this will age terribly by October.
That’s the deal. That’s why you’re here.
Las Vegas Raiders – Schedule
Floor: 6 Wins
In this scenario, either Kirk Cousins shows his age or Fernando Mendoza struggles through a slow start to his NFL career. Realistically, it would likely be some combination of both.
Even so, the improvements across the offensive line, the defense and most importantly the coaching staff under Klint Kubiak should be enough to carry Las Vegas to at least six wins regardless of quarterback play. As long as the Raiders can run the ball effectively and play average defense, six wins are well within reach on this schedule.
Ceiling: 8 Wins
The floor was raised this offseason, but this is still not a playoff team. The Raiders’ offensive line was historically bad last season, and even with significant improvement, it projects as average to below average at best. The same can be said for the defense.
The offensive weapons compound the problem. They are simply not good enough for either the aging Cousins or rookie Mendoza to carry this team through shootout situations consistently. Factor in six games against arguably the toughest division in football, and the path to the postseason remains a steep climb in the AFC West.
Kansas City Chiefs – Schedule
Floor: 6 Wins
Patrick Mahomes coming off surgery is the biggest question mark in Kansas City. If he misses time or is diminished in any way, the Chiefs are not good enough to win consistently without being carried by their future Hall of Fame quarterback.
The problem does not stop there. Even a healthy Mahomes is working without weapons, which limits how much heroics can realistically be expected from him. The margin for error in Kansas City is thin, and if things break the wrong way, it could be a very long season.
Ceiling: 11 Wins
All of that said, this is still the Chiefs. There is a realistic scenario where Patrick Mahomes returns to his best form, enough players step up around him and it becomes business as usual in Kansas City.
The pieces are there to support that outcome. Two new first-round picks could improve the defense quickly, and a favorable schedule after finishing third in the division last season does not hurt. Even so, 11 wins in this division might only be good enough for third place again.
Los Angeles Chargers – Schedule
Floor: 10 Wins
Last year, just about everything that could go wrong did, and the Chargers still won 11 games. That resilience is worth noting, but the conditions change in 2026. The schedule gets significantly tougher, and playing Moneyball with the defense is a strategy with a shelf life.
For those reasons, a 10-win floor is realistic. Barring another wave of catastrophic injuries, that is about as bad as it gets for this roster.
Ceiling: 13 Wins
Could this finally be the year everything comes together for the Chargers? It feels like that question gets asked every season. Yet here we are again, because on paper this still looks like a Super Bowl roster.
Justin Herbert sits on the fringe of true elite status, and he is protected by two of the best offensive tackles in the league. Add Mike McDaniel commanding the offense and the ceiling becomes genuinely frightening. If Los Angeles starts putting up close to 30 points on a consistent basis, this team will not lose many games.
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Denver Broncos – Schedule
Floor: 10 Wins
Despite the first-place schedule, this team is simply too good to expect significant regression. The reason comes back to what makes Denver dangerous in the first place: an elite defense and a dominant offensive line. Those are the building blocks that raise the floor for any roster, regardless of circumstance.
That said, even a strong floor represents a meaningful step back from last season’s results. If the defense slips at all, those close games Denver consistently found ways to win could start breaking the other direction in 2026.
Ceiling: 14 Wins
Back-to-back 14-win seasons is a tall order. The defense and offensive line are already good enough to get them close to that number, but the ceiling hinges on Bo Nix taking the next step. If he does, this version of the Broncos could be better than last year’s.
So why cap the ceiling at 14 wins? Three reasons. The 2025 Broncos were realistically a 10-to-12-win team that caught an unusual number of lucky breaks. The schedule this year is unforgiving. And in the NFL (and the AFC West), reaching beyond 14 wins without elite quarterback play is an exceptionally difficult ask regardless of how strong the roster is around him.
*Top Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images