The Raiders Face a Quarterback at War With Himself

For the Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday in Foxborough comes down to one question: which Drake Maye shows up for the New England Patriots?

Drake Maye is the whole argument. Through four games, the New England Patriots quarterback is 73 of 117 for 854 yards, four touchdowns and seven interceptions, with 23 carries for 135 yards. That is not a slump. That is two different quarterbacks sharing a jersey.

The first version arrived in the opening three weeks, and it was a collapse. Maye threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter of a 13-10 loss at Seattle, then added another in a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh. He followed that with a 14-of-25, 199-yard afternoon at Jacksonville that included two interceptions and a lost fumble in a 35-6 loss. All told, he had six interceptions and one touchdown pass through three games. His completion percentage slipped, his yards per attempt dropped and the swagger from last year’s 31-touchdown season was gone.

Then came Buffalo. Maye went 22 of 37 for 269 yards and three touchdowns, added eight carries for 54 yards and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. He also faced pressure 21 times, a career high.

Both versions are real. The Raiders’ job is to make sure Foxborough gets the first one.

Heat Maye until the ball comes out wrong. The line in front of him cannot save him.

This is the first key because the tape already wrote it. Maye’s problem is pressure, and New England cannot keep it off him. Right guards Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten are unavailable, and tackle Morgan Moses is on the injury report with a foot issue. Entering the Jacksonville game, Maye was pressured on 43.5% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate among starters.

In Week 1 against Seattle, he was a different passer from a clean pocket than he was when the pocket collapsed. He went 20 of 25 with a respectable grade when kept clean, but just 3 of 8 with a 28.4 grade under pressure. Buffalo did not fix the protection. It simply found a quarterback willing to escape it.

That puts Maxx Crosby in the matchup the Patriots’ line least wants…

Kwity Paye and Malcolm Koonce must win on the other edge so New England cannot slide its protection toward Crosby and live with the rest. The standard is not five sacks. It is the Jacksonville version of Maye: late throws, back-foot balls and interceptions that come when a second-level defender finds the ball.

The Raiders’ pass defense ranks fourth in the NFL in EPA per dropback, but that number holds only if Maye is throwing against a rush rather than settling into the rhythm he found for one afternoon in Orchard Park. Defensive coordinator Rob Leonard does not need a new plan. He needs the same early-down disruption that kept Miami and the Los Angeles Chargers off schedule, aimed at a quarterback who has shown he will give the ball away when the picture gets muddy.

The trap is treating the Buffalo game as the new baseline. One clean fourth quarter does not erase seven interceptions, but it does mean the Raiders cannot play soft and hope. If Maye has time, he will find somebody. If he does not, the season he has actually played will show up again.

Do not let Maye become the run game, because the running backs are not carrying this offense.

New England’s season-high rushing day came last week: 143 yards at 4.1 yards per carry against Buffalo. Maye accounted for 54 of those yards. Rhamondre Stevenson left that game late and has been limited with a knee injury, and TreVeyon Henderson has not been the relief valve the staff keeps describing. When the called run is stuck, Maye pulls the ball and goes. That is how a 2-2 team steals a division game on the road, and it is how a pass rush that overruns the pocket hands the offense back to the quarterback it just beat.

That is why the Raiders’ fit has to be the same one Leonard spent the week preaching against Kenneth Walker, just pointed at a different problem. Edge rushers have to stay in their lanes. Dean and Quay Walker must scrape with discipline instead of crashing the mesh and leaving the boot open. Maye is not Walker, and he is not going to average 5.5 yards a carry between the tackles for four quarters. He will take a 12-yard scramble on third-and-6 if the contain is late, though, and those are the plays that keep New England out of the long-yardage situations where he has been throwing interceptions. Stevenson being limited is an invitation, not a guarantee. If the Raiders tackle the back and lose the quarterback, the injury report does not matter.

Last week’s result in Las Vegas matters here, too. The Raiders lost a one-score game to Kansas City after playing well enough to win it, and giving a mobile quarterback free yards on the edge is how that kind of game flips. Contain first. Then hunt.

Punish a skill group and a secondary that are both short-handed and do not give the ball back.

A.J. Brown is out. The high-ankle sprain he suffered in the Seattle opener put him on injured reserve, and he is not eligible to return until Week 6 at the earliest. Coach Mike Vrabel has already said Brown will not play Sunday. Brown was in the locker room this week without a limp. But that is a Week 6 story, not a Week 5 story.

The receiver who has led New England in targets, catches and yards, Mack Hollins, did not finish the Buffalo game. He also did not practice Wednesday because of a calf injury. The secondary is just as thin. Five of the six cornerbacks on the active roster are on the injury report. Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) and Carlton Davis (neck) did not practice to open the week and have been ruled out for this week’s game. Karon Prunty is also out with a hamstring injury.

That leaves a passing game missing its WR1 and possibly its current WR1. It is going against a Raiders offense that just put up 27 points on the Chiefs, with a secondary that cannot field its top two corners.

Related: Should the Raiders trade for a wide receiver right now?

Brock Bowers is the stress point…

He has 16 catches on 25 targets for 202 yards and two touchdowns since he returned. He was limited this week with a knee issue, but he has been the answer when defenses load the box. Ashton Jeanty was quiet as a runner against Kansas City, with 15 carries for 58 yards, but loud as a receiver, with six catches for 68 yards. That split travels.

New England will want to take the run away and dare Kirk Cousins to win it outside. With Gonzalez and Davis out, the outside is available. Jalen Nailor is in the concussion protocol and did not practice Wednesday. Tre Tucker and whoever else is active must be ready for a real target share.

The Raiders do not need a shootout. They need one or two explosive plays that keep Maye on the sideline. They also need to finish the drives that have defined their 3-1 start.

The other half is ball security…

Maye has thrown seven interceptions because he has been reckless, and Cousins cannot answer with a gift of his own. The Raiders still lead the league in long drives and have lived on takeaways. New England just showed it can win a one-score game when Maye plays cleanly for a half, and a short field is how that version survives. A long field against this pass rush, with Brown in the locker room and the corners on the report, is how the Patriots go back to Jacksonville.

The assignment is the quarterback in front of them. Pressure him. Keep him from becoming the running game. Make the missing receivers and the missing corners show up on the scoreboard. Do those three things, and the Chiefs’ loss becomes a one-week detour. Play the Buffalo version of Maye soft, and Foxborough will look exactly like the place a 3-1 team goes to remember it is still October.