Sunday at Allegiant Stadium is the Las Vegas Raiders’ chance to stop the bleeding.
They are 3-3 after three straight losses: a one-score loss to the Chiefs, a 45-17 road thrashing in New England and a 33-30 home loss to Buffalo. The Rams arrive at 2-4 and have lost two in a row. They will be without wide receiver Davante Adams for the next six to 10 weeks with a hamstring tendon injury, and they are still waiting on a final call for wide receiver Puka Nacua’s calf. Kickoff is 4:25 p.m. ET.
Coach Sean McVay’s team is limping, but that does not make this a walk. It makes it a game the Raiders have to take, since the schedule does not get softer just because the opponent is short-handed.
The three keys are the ones the tape already wrote.
Run the ball, and let Ashton Jeanty stand the way he runs…
This has been the broken record all season, and the numbers explain why it still needs to be said. The Raiders are averaging 79.2 rushing yards per game, 30th in the league. Ashton Jeanty is averaging roughly 3.2 yards per carry, down from his already modest rookie mark. His recent production has been even worse.
He had 10 carries for 27 yards in the blowout loss to the Patriots. Against the Bills, he managed 10 carries for 22 yards and a touchdown. Two of those carries came in the second half and resulted in negative yardage. Yet Jeanty is generating more yards after contact than almost anyone. About 90% of his production comes after the first hit, and he is being contacted almost immediately, averaging just 0.3 yards before contact.
That is not a back who has forgotten how to run. It is a scheme and an offensive line that have not given him a runway.
The stance is part of the problem…
At Boise State, Jeanty stood straight up in the backfield, the upright “Michael Myers” look that let him see the field and explode. Last year, the staff made him crouch, then let him go back to what he knew after three weeks. This year, coach Klint Kubiak has again limited the upright stance, and when asked about it, he deferred to private coaching conversations. The production has tracked the restriction.
That makes this the week the run game has to look like the one Kubiak was hired to install. The Rams defense is missing Myles Garrett, who is on injured reserve, along with starting defensive tackles, and the secondary is dealing with Trent McDuffie’s groin injury. The Raiders need more than 18 carries for 60 yards. They need a real volume day, with Washington spelling Jeanty, the line firing off the ball instead of catching it, and Jeanty allowed to stand the way he has always stood when the yards actually show up.
If the Raiders treat this as another game where the run is a formality and the pass is the plan, the three-game skid continues. If they treat it as the week the scheme finally grows up, the Rams’ missing bodies become relevant.
Blanket Puka Nacua if he plays, contain the two-headed run game if he doesn’t, and get to Stafford before he settles…
Puka Nacua was limited in Thursday’s practice with a calf injury and underwent testing that NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport described as “more minor than anything else.” That is not a clearance. It is a question mark. In four games this season, Nacua has 37 catches for 417 yards and a touchdown, and quarterback Matthew Stafford has spent years targeting him early and often. When Nacua is healthy, the Rams’ passing game is Nacua and everyone else.
If he gets the green light, the secondary’s job is simple and hard: take him away. That means cornerback Eric Stokes and the other corners with safety help over the top, and it means not letting Nacua win the first three targets so Stafford can get into a rhythm. Wide receiver Davante Adams is already on injured reserve, so the receiver room gets thin fast without Nacua. With him, it is still the primary problem.
If Nacua sits, the problem moves to the ground…
The Rams have run a genuine two-headed backfield all year, with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum splitting the work. Williams is averaging around 4.9 yards a carry, and Corum is right there with him on fewer snaps. Last week against Arizona, Williams had 10 carries for 50 yards while Corum nearly matched his touches. The Raiders’ run defense is 28th in the league, allowing 134.3 yards a game, and that ranking is no secret to McVay. If the pass game is limited, he will hand the ball to both backs until someone stops them. Gap integrity, edge setting and linebackers who fill instead of scrape are non-negotiable. A three-game skid does not get fixed by giving up 150 yards on the ground to a 2-4 team.
Either way, the constant is Stafford, though he’s a statue. He does not scramble for first downs the way Patriots quarterback Drake Maye or Josh Allen will. He stands in the pocket and delivers. That is an advantage for a Raiders front that has Maxx Crosby, Kwity Paye and a defensive line that can generate pressure without needing the quarterback to hold the ball for five seconds. Get to him early. Make the first series uncomfortable. Force a hurried throw or a sack that ends a drive before the Rams can establish either Williams or Corum.
The Raiders have not created enough takeaways during the losing streak, and a stationary quarterback under pressure is how that changes. Do not wait until the third quarter to find out whether the rush can bother him. Find out on the opening possession.
Open the passing game beyond the Kirk Cousins-Tre Tucker connection…
Kirk Cousins and Tre Tucker have started to look like they trust each other. That is progress, but it is not enough. The Rams will take away the one receiver who is working and dare the rest of the room to beat them.
Tight end Brock Bowers has been the volume answer when healthy. He is the team’s leading receiver and practiced fully Thursday after dealing with hamstring and calf injuries. Still, he has to be more than a checkdown option.
Wide receivers Jalen Nailor and Cody White, along with whoever else is active, must win on intermediate routes. That will keep the defense from focusing solely on Tucker. Cousins has the arm to push the ball downfield, but the last three weeks have not shown enough of it.
This is also how the run game gets easier…
If the Rams can load the box because the wideouts are not threatening, Jeanty’s upright stance does not matter. If one or two of those receivers catch a 20-yard crosser or a boundary shot, the safeties have to respect it, and the line of scrimmage opens. The Raiders are still scoring 27 points a game, so they have not been unable to move the ball. They have been unable to finish drives and have been unable to stop the other side long enough for the points to matter. Spreading the trust in the passing game is how the drives get finished against a defense that is already missing bodies.
The Rams are limping. Adams is out for weeks, Nacua is questionable and the defensive front is depleted. Still, none of that guarantees anything Sunday. The Raiders have lost three straight, including two home games, and their run defense ranks near the bottom of the league. The path forward comes down to three keys.
They must run the ball and let Jeanty be himself. They also need to contain Nacua or the Rams’ running backs, depending on the final injury report, and pressure Stafford early. Finally, the rest of the receiving corps must step up. If the Raiders execute in all three areas, a 4-3 record is within reach at a stadium where they have already won this season. Treating the Rams’ injuries as a free win, however, could turn Allegiant into the place where a losing streak becomes a season-long problem.
*Top Photo: Associated Press