The Silver and Black have a nice dose of momentum following two victories to open the Antonio Pierce era. In Week 11, the Miami Dolphins will welcome the upstart Raiders to South Beach. Although Vegas opens as a heavy underdog, it would be unwise to rule them out entirely.
The team has earned that much with its impressive defensive performances throughout most of the year. Granted, going up against head coach Mike McDaniel, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a different beast than the Giants, Patriots, and Packers of the world. But the Raiders have a real chance to stick with a division-leading squad on Sunday.
4 Ways The Raiders Can Pull Off An Upset In Week 11
No. 1 — Defense Bends But Doesn’t Break
The Raiders’ defense — to the surprise of many — has been the strong point of the roster. Entering the year, guys like Maxx Crosby and Marcus Peters fetched the headlines, along with disgruntled veteran Chandler Jones. To this point, Crosby is the only one that lived up to the hype.
Breakout stars like Robert Spillane, John Jenkins, and Adam Butler have picked up the slack, while first-round pick Tyree Wilson improves each and every week. If the Raiders want to avoid a blowout, it will require another heartfelt effort from the defensive side.
The Dolphins are well-equipped to run up the score, but the offense will likely be integrating the returning De’Von Achane into the fold. Against the Chiefs in Germany, Miami was unable to post an efficient outing on offense. If the Silver and Black can cause pressure on the pocket, keep a lid on Tyreek Hill, and control the line of scrimmage — that is the recipe for an upset.
Admittedly, that’s a lot of “ifs”. I mean, there’s a reason the Dolphins are 12.5-point favorites. But that line reads as disrespectful when accounting for how each team has played the past three weeks. A turnover or two would be enough to turn the tide. The Raiders have a knack for forcing those lately.
No. 2 — Josh Jacobs Asserts Himself Early
The Dolphins — as talented as they are on the depth chart — have been largely inconsistent in the run defense phase. Miami has capable players in the trenches, highlighted by Christian Wilkins, but the Raiders can attack the rest of the line by leaning on Josh Jacobs and the running game.
Jacobs is fresh off his two best performances of the season, which just so happen to coincide with the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels and the move to rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell. Compiling 214 rushing yards combined vs. both New York teams, Jacobs is beginning to show signs of life.
The former Alabama product led the entire league in rushing last year, but after a lengthy offseason holdout and downright awful play calling from McDaniels, it was a sluggish start out of the gate. If the Raiders want any chance of keeping pace with the Dolphins, a steady ground presence is necessary.
No. 3 — Raiders OC Bo Hardegree Must Bring Aggressive Mindset
Leaning on Jacobs is the correct path toward victory, but it can’t all be at his feet. Don’t get me wrong, O’Connell shouldn’t throw the ball 40 times. However, the fourth-rounder out of Purdue has to keep the Dolphins defense honest throughout the afternoon. The offensive line is not good enough to create running lanes vs. stacked boxes on the road.
The onus to keep the passing game on par with the running game falls on interim offensive coordinator Bo Hardegree. The play calling the past two weeks is much more inspired, but the training wheels have noticeably stayed on for O’Connell as a passer. Hardegree has kept things fairly even in terms of passing attempts and rushing attempts, but it’s time to open up the playbook a little more.
All-Pro wideout Davante Adams can feast on Sunday in preparation for the upcoming Thanksgiving Day festivities next week. Free-agent signing Jakobi Meyers is making waves in his own right in 2023, while rookies Michael Mayer and Tre Tucker are slowly gaining steam in Year 1. The Raiders will need help from all of them to keep O’Connell on track in a heated AFC battle with playoff implications.
No. 4 — Touchdowns, Not Field Goals
The final point bleeds into the previous points. The gist of it? Be aggressive on offense. Although the Dolphins have scored 17 points or less in two of their past three games, it’s unlikely that a bunch of field goals will result in victory for Vegas in Week 11. Instead, the offense must capitalize when it gets to the red zone.
Whether it’s Jacobs carrying the load inside the twenties or creative play calling that allows O’Connell some easy reads in the passing game — the team needs points, points, and more points. Perhaps more importantly, the defense will need time to catch its bearings and maintain stamina, something the offense can help with by sustaining long, scoring drives.
It won’t be easy. The oddsmakers typically know what they are talking about, which paints a scary picture for the +560 underdogs. On paper, this looks like a blowout in the making. However, using context from each team’s previous few games, it’s bound to be more competitive than anyone thinks. That is, as long as the Raiders can check off these four boxes during the game.
*Top Photo: Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sports